Turning Words into Numbers: Measuring News Media Coverage of Shortages Staff discussion paper 2023-8 Lin Chen, Stéphanie Houle We develop high-frequency, news-based indicators using natural language processing methods to analyze news media texts. Our indicators track both supply (raw, intermediate and final goods) and labour shortages over time. They also provide weekly time-varying topic narratives about various types of shortages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C82, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound Staff working paper 2020-2 Jasmina Arifovic, Alex Grimaud, Isabelle Salle, Gauthier Vermandel This research develops a model in which the economy is directly influenced by how pessimistic or optimistic economic agents are about the future. The agents may hold different views and update them as new economic data become available. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C82, E, E3, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
GDP by Industry in Real Time: Are Revisions Well Behaved? Staff analytical note 2018-40 Patrick Rizzetto The monthly data for real gross domestic product (GDP) by industry are used extensively in real time both to ground the Bank of Canada’s monitoring of economic activity and in the Bank’s nowcasting tools, making these data one of the most important high-frequency time series for Canadian nowcasting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C82, E, E0, E01 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Assessing Vulnerabilities in Emerging-Market Economies Staff discussion paper 2018-13 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Alexander Lam This paper introduces a new tool to monitor economic and financial vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies. We obtain vulnerability indexes for several early warning indicators covering 26 emerging markets from 1990 to 2017 and use them to monitor the evolution of vulnerabilities before, during and after an economic or financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C82, F, F3, F34, G, G0, G01, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data Staff discussion paper 2017-5 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille Every quarter, the Bank of Canada conducts quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada, referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). A principal-component analysis conducted by Pichette and Rennison (2011) led to the development of the BOS indicator, which summarizes survey results and is used by the Bank as a gauge of overall business sentiment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C82, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting