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The Board of Directors of the Bank of Canada today announced the appointment of Tiff Macklem as Deputy Governor of the Bank and a member of the Bank's Governing Council, effective 29 December. Mr. Macklem's appointment fills the vacancy created by the departure of Mark Carney.

Conference held on 12 to 14 December 2004 (papers in unedited, electronic format only)

When I talk about the "financial system," I am referring to financial institutions and markets, the infrastructure, laws, and regulations that govern and support their operations, and the macroeconomic framework within which they operate. My message for you is that improving the efficiency of Canada's financial system is imperative.

Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said today it is imperative that Canada work to enhance the efficiency of its financial system.

he Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2 1/2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 2 3/4 per cent.

Effective today, the Bank of Canada is inviting nominations for the second annual Law Enforcement Award of Excellence for Counterfeit Deterrence. This award is presented to one or more police officers, employees, or volunteers of a Canadian law enforcement agency who have demonstrated outstanding commitment and initiative in the fight against bank note counterfeiting or in the prevention of counterfeiting.

The Canadian economy grew faster in the first half of the year than we had projected, largely because of a surge in exports. The economy is now operating near its production capacity and continues to adjust to global developments.

The issue addressed in this article is the extent to which monetary policy in Canada should respond to asset-price bubbles. The article concludes that maintaining low and stable consumer price inflation is the best contribution that monetary policy can make to promoting economic and financial stability, even when the economy experiences asset-price bubbles. In extreme circumstances—when an asset-price bubble is well identified and likely to have significant costs to the economy when it bursts—monetary policy might better maintain low and stable consumer price inflation by leaning against a particular bubble even though it may mean that inflation deviates temporarily from its target. Such a strategy might reduce the risk that a crash in asset prices could lead to a recession and to inflation markedly below target in the longer run. The circumstances where this strategy is possible will be rare because economists are far from being able to determine consistently and reliably when leaning against a particular bubble is likely to do more harm than good. Housing-price bubbles should be a greater concern for Canadian monetary policy than equity-price bubbles, since rising housing prices are more likely to reflect excessively easy domestic credit conditions than are equity prices, which are largely determined in global markets.

Cover page

Bus Transportation Tokens and Tickets

The pieces illustrated on the cover range in size from 12 mm to 38 mm in diameter or width. They form part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada.

Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa

The break-even inflation rate (BEIR) is calculated by comparing the yields on conventional and Real Return Bonds. Defined as the average rate of inflation that equates the expected returns on these two bonds, the BEIR has the potential to contain useful information about long-run inflation expectations. Yet the BEIR has been higher, on average, and more variable than survey measures of inflation expectations, which may be explained by the effects of premiums and distortions embedded in the BEIR. Because of the difficulty in accounting for these distortions, the BEIR should not be given a large weight as a measure of long-run inflation expectations at this time. However, as the Real Return Bond market continues to develop, the BEIR should become a more useful indicator of inflation expectations. At present, it demonstrates no clear advantage over survey measures and even past inflation rates in forecasting near-term inflation.