A Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment Staff Analytical Note 2017-7 Russell Barnett, Rhys R. Mendes Since 2012, business investment growth has slowed considerably in advanced economies, averaging a little less than 2 per cent versus the 4 per cent growth rates experienced in the period leading up to crisis. Several recent studies have attributed a large part of the weakness in business investment to cyclical factors, including soft aggregate demand, and, to a lesser degree, heightened uncertainty and tighter financial conditions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E37
May 11, 2017 Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Martin Leduc, Louis Morel Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31
April 12, 2017 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments
March 21, 2017 Getting Down to Business: Investment and the Economic Outlook Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the factors affecting business investment and the implications for the economic outlook. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments
October 6, 2016 Economic Trends and Monetary Policy Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières Trois-Rivières, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins talks about the major trends of the Canadian economy and how they affect monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments
The Case of Serial Disappointment Staff Analytical Note 2016-10 Justin-Damien Guénette, Nicholas Labelle, Martin Leduc, Lori Rennison Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E6, E66, F, F0, F01
Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models Staff Analytical Note 2016-8 Farrukh Suvankulov This note investigates the relationship between crude oil prices and investment in the energy sector. We employ a set of vector autoregression (VAR) models (unconstrained VAR, vector error-correction and Bayesian VAR) to formalize the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and fixed-asset cash spending in the oil and gas extraction and support activities sector of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E27, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47
June 15, 2016 The Canadian Economy: A Progress Report Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Yukon Chamber of Commerce Whitehorse, Yukon Governor Stephen S. Poloz talks about the outlook for Canada’s economy and the adjustment to lower resource prices. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments
March 30, 2016 Adjusting to the Fall in Commodity Prices: One Step at a Time Remarks Lynn Patterson Edmonton Chamber of Commerce Edmonton, Alberta Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson discusses how the Canadian economy is adjusting to the fall in commodity prices. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments
What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment? Staff Discussion Paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, D84, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31