Search

Content Types

Topics

JEL Codes

Locations

Departments

Authors

Sources

Statuses

Published After

Published Before

281 Results

The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Part 2. A Robust Method for Simulating Forward-Looking Models

In this report, we describe methods for solving economic models when expectations are presumed to have at least some element of consistency with the predictions of the model itself. We present analytical results that establish the convergence properties of alternative solution procedures for linear models with unique solutions. Only one method is guaranteed to converge, […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53
November 9, 1994

The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction

This article provides an overview of the Bank of Canada's new economic model, the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), which has been under development at the Bank since 1989. The model has two roles. It is used to make economic projections, which are conducted quarterly and form an important basis for discussions of monetary policy between staff and senior management. QPM is also a research tool: it was developed to analyse important changes to the economy or macroeconomic policies which require a deeper understanding of long-term economic forces. The model pays particular attention to factors shaping long-term equilibrium, such as stocks of wealth, capital, government debt and net foreign assets. Various sources of dynamics, including the adjustment of forward-looking expectations, operate to determine the transition path to equilibrium and the consistency of expectations. The article discusses the history of QPM and earlier economic models at the Bank, and provides a simple overview of how the model works.

The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Part 1. The Steady-State Model: SSQPM

This report is the first documenting the Bank of Canada's new model of the Canadian economy, the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). QPM is used at the Bank of Canada for both economic projections and policy analysis. Here the authors focus on the model's long-run properties, describing SSQPM, a model of the steady state of QPM […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E1, E13

An Up-to-Date and Improved BVAR Model of the Canadian Economy

Staff Working Paper 1994-4 Daniel Racette, Jacques Raynauld, Christian Sigouin
In this paper, we estimate a fully optimized BVAR model of the Canadian economy for the period 1971-87. The model is well-adapted to the features of a small open economy. We show how it can be used as an input in the monetary policy process either as a forecasting instrument or an analytical tool.

Monetary Policy, Uncertainty and the Presumption of Linearity

Technical Report No. 63 Douglas Laxton, David Rose, Robert Tetlow
This report shows that extreme conditions and volatility in markets are much more likely to result from systematic policy errors in gauging and responding to inflationary pressures in an economy than from unfortunate random shocks. We describe a simple model that incorporates the key features of the policy control process. We use two versions of […]

Un modèle du coût du financement et du ratio d'endettement des entreprises non financières

Technical Report No. 61 Jean-François Fillion
The main aim of this paper is to calculate the cost of financing for Canadian non-financial businesses and to develop a model to explain financing cost trends on the basis of selected macroeconomic variables. The model described herein is a system based on four equations: one for the real after-tax cost of financing; one for […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models

Les effets macro-économiques des déficits budgétaires : résultats d'un modèle de simulation

Technical Report No. 47 Pierre Duguay, Yves Rabeau
An increase in a government deficit can have two effects: short-term stimulation of aggregate demand and employment, and long-term contraction of potential output. In this paper, these effects are illustrated using a dynamic, macroeconomic simulation model. The model is not a forecasting tool; it is intended to bridge the gap between Keynesian and supply-side economics […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): H, H6, H60

A Comparison of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes in a Small Dynamic Open-Economy Simulation Model

Technical Report No. 42 David Longworth, Stephen S. Poloz
In this paper, the simulation properties of a small, dynamic, open-economy IS-LM-Aggregate Supply model are examined under a variety of alternative policy rule assumptions. These assumptions include rigid money stock, exchange rate and nominal income targets, as well as less rigid policy rules that recognize information limitations. The model that is used consists of four […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52

An Integrated Model of the Portfolio Behaviour of the Canadian Household Sector: 1968-1983

Technical Report No. 41 Stephen S. Poloz
An econometric model of the portfolio behaviour of the Canadian household sector is developed to study the linkages between demands for financial assets. The theoretical basis for the model is a version of the well-known Brainard-Tobin framework, which is extended to integrate the consumption-savings and portfolio-allocation decisions. This integration allows joint estimation of the real […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11

Responses of Various Econometric Models to Selected Policy Shocks

Technical Report No. 38 Brian O'Reilly, Graydon Paulin, Philip Smith
In July, 1982 a seminar was held in Ottawa to compare the responses of nine major econometric models to a previously specified set of shocks to the Canadian economy. At the seminar, which was sponsored by the Bank of Canada and the Department of Finance, participants presented the results of their simulations and discussed the […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E1, E17
Go To Page