ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model Technical Report No. 100 José Dorich, Michael K. Johnston, Rhys R. Mendes, Stephen Murchison, Yang Zhang This report provides a detailed technical description of an updated version of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM II), which replaced ToTEM (Murchison and Rennison 2006) in June 2011 as the Bank of Canada’s quarterly projection model for Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, F, F4, F41
The Safety of Government Debt Staff Working Paper 2013-34 Kartik Anand, Prasanna Gai We examine the safety of government bonds in the presence of Knightian uncertainty amongst financial market participants. In our model, the information insensitivity of government bonds is driven by strategic complementarities across counterparties and the structure of trading relationships. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D8, D81, E, E4, E44, F, F0, F02, F4, F41, G, G1, G15
Housing and Tax Policy Staff Working Paper 2013-33 Sami Alpanda, Sarah Zubairy In this paper, we investigate the effects of housing-related tax policy measures on macroeconomic aggregates using a dynamic general-equilibrium model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Housing JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, H, H2, H24, R, R3, R38
Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability Staff Working Paper 2013-27 Huixin Bi, Eric M. Leeper The authors study the implications of fiscal policy behaviour for sovereign risk in a framework that determines a country’s fiscal limit, the point at which, for economic or political reasons, taxes and spending can no longer adjust to stabilize debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, E65, H, H6, H63
Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations Staff Working Paper 2013-26 Huixin Bi, Eric M. Leeper, Campbell Leith The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition - either tax- or spending-based - are uncertain. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, E63, H, H3, H30, H6, H60
Business Cycle Effects of Credit Shocks in a DSGE Model with Firm Defaults Staff Working Paper 2013-19 M. Hashem Pesaran, TengTeng Xu This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the relationship between credit shocks, firm defaults and volatility, and to study the impact of credit shocks on business cycle dynamics. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G2, G21
Booms and Busts in House Prices Explained by Constraints in Housing Supply Staff Working Paper 2013-18 Narayan Bulusu, Jefferson Duarte, Carles Vergara-Alert We study the importance of supply constraints in explaining the heterogeneity in house price cycles across geographies in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models JEL Code(s): R, R3, R31
Are Sunspots Learnable? An Experimental Investigation in a Simple General-Equilibrium Model Staff Working Paper 2013-14 Jasmina Arifovic, George Evans, Olena Kostyshyna We conduct experiments with human subjects in a model with a positive production externality in which productivity is a non-decreasing function of the average level of employment of other firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, G, G2, G20
Jump-Diffusion Long-Run Risks Models, Variance Risk Premium and Volatility Dynamics Staff Working Paper 2013-12 Jianjian Jin This paper calibrates a class of jump-diffusion long-run risks (LRR) models to quantify how well they can jointly explain the equity risk premium and the variance risk premium in the U.S. financial markets, and whether they can generate realistic dynamics of risk-neutral and realized volatilities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G17
An Equilibrium Analysis of the Rise in House Prices and Mortgage Debt Staff Working Paper 2013-9 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the contributions of population aging, mortgage innovation and historically low interest rates to the sharp rise in U.S. house prices and mortgage debt between 1994 and 2005. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, R, R2, R21