Has the Inflation Process Changed? Selective Review of Recent Research on Inflation Dynamics Staff Discussion Paper 2020-11 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, James (Jim) C. MacGee From 2011 to 2019, inflation in Canada and advanced economies usually registered below inflation targets, spurring the debate on whether the inflation process has changed. This paper highlights emerging questions that will influence the conduct of monetary policy in Canada in the near term. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
Optimal Quantitative Easing in a Monetary Union Staff Working Paper 2020-49 Serdar Kabaca, Renske Maas, Kostas Mavromatis, Romanos Priftis How should a central bank conduct quantitative easing (QE) in a monetary union when regions differ in their size and portfolio characteristics? Optimal QE policy suggests allocating greater purchases from the region that faces stronger portfolio frictions, and not necessarily according to each region’s size. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58
Short-Run Dynamics in a Search-Theoretic Model of Monetary Exchange Staff Working Paper 2020-48 Jonathan Chiu, Miguel Molico We study the short-run effects of monetary policy using a search-theoretic monetary model in which agents are subject to idiosyncratic shocks and aggregate monetary shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E5, E50
November 17, 2020 Panel remarks Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Public Policy Forum Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem speaks by videoconference at the Public Policy Forum’s Sustainable Finance 2 Roundtable Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Climate change, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Monetary policy
Corporate investment and monetary policy transmission in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2020-26 Min Jae Kim, Jonathan Witmer Unexpected changes in interest rates lead small firms to materially change their investment rate. Large firms, in contrast, show a smaller response. This suggests both that financial conditions are an important channel for transmitting monetary policy and that firm characteristics can help us better understand fluctuations in business investment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D9, D92, G, G3, G31, G32
The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update Staff Analytical Note 2020-24 Dmitry Matveev, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Rodrigo Sekkel The neutral rate of interest is important for central banks because it helps measure the stance of monetary policy. We present updated estimates of the neutral rate in Canada using the most recent data. We expect the COVID-19 pandemic to significantly affect the fundamental drivers of the Canadian neutral rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41
October 8, 2020 COVID‑19 and the financial system Speech summary Tiff Macklem Global Risk Institute Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses financial risks from the COVID-19 pandemic that are affecting our economy and that could shape how well it recovers. He also talks about financial risks from climate change. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial services, Financial stability, Monetary policy
October 8, 2020 From COVID to climate—the importance of risk management Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem The Global Risk Institute Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the importance of financial risk management as Canada recovers from the pandemic, and as it deals with issues like climate change. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial services, Financial stability, Monetary policy
Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach Staff Working Paper 2020-40 Christopher S. Sutherland How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58
September 10, 2020 Supporting growth and greater opportunity Speech summary Tiff Macklem Canadian Chamber of Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem outlines how the COVID-19 recession has had an uneven impact on Canadians and discusses the Bank’s decision yesterday to leave the policy rate unchanged. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments