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85 Results

Canada’s Cross-Border Carry Trade

Canada has spent more than its national income for much of the post-Global Financial Crisis period. Yet favourable asset-price and exchange-rate movements have raised Canada’s net foreign assets. Since 1990, cumulative valuation gains were about three times the current-account deficit, relaxing the adjustment needed to stabilize Canada’s external position.

BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2026?

Staff analytical paper 2026-48 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Joe Berry
The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default.

Labor Markets, Financial Crises, and Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries*

We document the macroeconomic patterns that characterize labor market recovery from financial crises. Using a sample of postwar recession episodes from around the world, we show that financial crises are typically followed by jobless recoveries, with a sluggish recovery in employment relative to output.

Patterns and Determinants of Global Cryptocurrency Flows

Staff working paper 2026-15 Christian Friedrich, Laura Zhao
This paper analyzes cross-border cryptocurrency flows, focusing on Bitcoin and four major stablecoins. Using data for 162 countries, we identify the key determinants, including responses to weak economic conditions and demand for remittances. A COVID-19 case study supports these findings and emphasizes the role of cryptocurrencies in global finance.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, F, F3, F32, F38, F5, F51, G, G1, G15, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech

Money Talks: How Foreign and Domestic Monetary Policy Communications Move Financial Markets

Staff working paper 2025-33 Rodrigo Sekkel, Henry Stern, Xu Zhang
We construct a dataset on Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada non-rate announcement events to provide novel insights into how foreign and domestic monetary policy communications affect the financial markets of open economies. We find that Fed non-rate communications have a stronger impact on long-term interest rates and stock futures, while Bank of Canada communications are relatively more important for short-term interest rates and the exchange rate.

Demand-Driven Risk Premia in Foreign Exchange and Bond Markets

Staff working paper 2025-29 Ingomar Krohn, Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang
We show how Treasury demand shocks transmit to foreign exchange and bond markets globally. Higher Treasury demand weakens the U.S. dollar and raises foreign bond prices, with effects persisting for two weeks. The transmission varies predictably across countries based on their monetary policy alignment with the United States.

BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2025?

Staff analytical note 2025-24 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Joe Berry
The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. The 2025 edition highlights a decline in the US-dollar value of sovereign debt in default and provides more data about defaults on China’s official loans.

Short-Run and Long-Run News: Evidence from Giant Commodity Discoveries

Staff working paper 2025-24 Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Kirill Shakhnov, Laure Simon
Our understanding of news shocks is, to a large extent, based on studies that focus empirically on short-run news. This paper brings new insights by analyzing the effects of giant commodity discoveries, which typically materialize over the longer run.

Monetary policy, interest rates and the Canadian dollar

Changes in domestic interest rates affect the value of the Canadian dollar less than changes in the risk premium do. These variations often occur when a broad shift in risk sentiment occurs in global markets. Ultimately, the value of the currency reflects long-term, slow-moving features of the economies.

The International Exposure of the Canadian Banking System

In 2023, the share of Canadian banks’ foreign assets and liabilities amounted to around 50%. While Canadian banks engage domestically mostly with households and non-financial corporations, their most common counterparties abroad are non-bank financial institutions.
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