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The Governing Council judges that the risks to the stability of Canada’s financial system remain high, as they were at the time of the June FSR. The sources of the key risks are similar to those highlighted in June, and emanate primarily from the external environment.

Results in the first quarter of 2023 show that consumer expectations for inflation one to two years ahead fell but remain elevated, particularly for services. Consumers, especially indebted households and equity-deserving groups, are facing financial pressures and limits on their spending due to high inflation and increasing interest rates. Consumers expect to spend less on discretionary services, such as travelling and eating out. Canadians continue to anticipate a recession in the next 12 months. Many are uncertain about where the economy and job markets are going. Despite this, workers still see the labour market as strong and expect wage growth to increase.

In its role as fiscal agent to the government, the Bank of Canada provides analysis and advice on decisions about the government's domestic debt portfolio. Debt-management decisions depend on assumptions about future interest rates, macroeconomic outcomes, and fiscal policy, yet when a debt-strategy decision is taken, none of these factors can be known with certainty. Moreover, the government has various financing options (i.e., treasury bills, nominal bonds, and inflation-linked bonds) to meet its objectives of minimizing debt-service charges while simultaneously ensuring a prudent risk profile and well-functioning government securities markets. Bank of Canada staff have therefore developed a mathematical model to assist in the decision-making process. This article describes the key aspects of the debt manager's challenge and the principal assumptions incorporated in the debt-strategy model, illustrated with specific results.

We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.

Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses some of the challenges facing the private and public sectors as they manage risk in the new global economic landscape.

Quarterly Financial Report - Third Quarter 2017 - For the period ended September 30, 2017

Quarterly Financial Report - First Quarter 2018 - For the period ended March 31, 2018

Right now, last week's tragic events in the United States are uppermost in people's minds. Like millions of people around the globe, Canadians are very concerned about the situation. We all share in the sheer horror of what has happened.

The conflict in the Middle East has generated both direct and indirect cost pressures that continue to feed through supply chains. These cost pressures are material for the inflation outlook.

This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.