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Tariffs are significantly higher than they were at the start of 2025, and it is extremely difficult to predict how US trade policy will play out. Canadian economic activity has slowed but is showing signs of resilience. While inflation is close to 2%, underlying inflation has picked up.

The Canadian economy continues to adjust to US tariffs and the new global trade landscape. This adjustment will take time and growth is expected to be modest. Inflation is projected to remain near the 2% target.

To help shape the renewal research agenda, the Bank engaged with private sector economists and academics in 2024. In 2025–26, the Bank consulted financial institutions and pension funds, business and employer associations, unions, think tanks, consumer groups and community organizations.

In the Update, the Bank noted that the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated since the October Monetary Policy Report, with the intensifying financial crisis spilling over into real economic activity.

This article summarizes the proceedings of a conference hosted by the Bank of Canada in November 1999. Three major themes emerged at the conference. The first concerned uncertainty about the transmission mechanism by which monetary policy affects output and inflation. The second concerned the potential usefulness of monetary aggregates in guiding the economy along a stable non-inflationary growth path. The third was the recent developments in dynamic monetary general-equilibrium models. The work presented suggests that a wide range of models is useful for understanding the various paths by which monetary policy actions might influence the economy.

This article provides an analysis of some recent banking regulatory initiatives that are likely to influence the activities of financial intermediaries and the effectiveness of central bank monetary policy implementation frameworks. Although the effects of individual regulations can be anticipated in most cases, the combined regulatory impact is not yet clear. Central banks should, however, be able to accommodate the effects of the emerging regulatory environment within their existing policy implementation frameworks.

Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

How do unconventional monetary policies like quantitative easing and negative interest rates affect domestic financial conditions and the broader economy in small open econo-mies, such as Canada? These policies are effective in depreciating the exchange rate in small open economies, while lower interest rates are also passed through to the economy, albeit only partially. When conventional monetary policy is close to its limits, fiscal policy may be a more important complement to monetary policy in a small economy, particularly if global demand for safe assets compresses long-term interest rates.