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September 30, 2023

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Eugene Trostin

Eugene Trostin is a Quantitative Analyst in the Financial Markets Department at the Bank of Canada. His research combines financial economics and monetary policy, with a focus on using quantitative frameworks to interpret market dynamics. Eugene holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of Ottawa.
November 17, 2011

Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey: A Principal-Component Approach

This article reviews recent work that uses principal-component analysis to extract information common to indicators from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS). The authors use correlation analysis and an out-of-sample forecasting exercise to assess and compare the information content of the principal component with that of responses to key individual survey questions on growth in real gross domestic product and in real business investment. Results suggest that summarizing the common movements among BOS indicators may provide useful information for forecasting near-term growth in business investment. For growth in real gross domestic product, however, the survey’s balance of opinion on future sales growth appears to be more informative.

Toni Gravelle

Toni Gravelle was appointed Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, effective October 1, 2019.
Department(s): Executive

David Longworth

David Longworth served as a Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada from April 2003 until his retirement from the Bank in March 2010. As a member of the Bank’s Governing Council, he shared responsibility for decisions with respect to monetary policy and financial system stability, and for setting the strategic direction of the Bank. […]
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