International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers Staff working paper 2023-56 Sami Alpanda, Uluc Aysun, Serdar Kabaca We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, F, F4, F41, F44 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
April 30, 2019 Research Update - April 2019 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
May 4, 2023 Getting inflation back to 2% Speech summary Tiff Macklem Toronto Region Board of Trade Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem explains that higher interest rates are working to slow inflation but warns that getting all the way back to the 2% target may take time. He also discusses the recent stress in the global banking sector and how financial stability and price stability work together. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
October 17, 2006 Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 4 1/4 per cent Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 4 1/4 per cent. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
December 6, 1999 The Canadian economy, productivity, and our standard of living Remarks Gordon Thiessen The Fraser Institute Vancouver, British Columbia Over the past couple of years, there has been considerable debate about productivity and our standard of living in Canada. For the most part, the discussion of these issues has been useful, but at times it has been somewhat confusing. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Is the Excess Bond Premium a Leading Indicator of Canadian Economic Activity? Staff analytical note 2018-4 Maxime Leboeuf, Daniel Hyun This note investigates whether Canadian corporate spreads and the excess bond premium (EBP) lead Canadian economic activity. Indeed, we find that corporate spreads precede changes in real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada over the subsequent year. The EBP accounts for most of this property. Further, an unanticipated increase in the Canadian EBP forecasts a deterioration of domestic macroeconomic conditions: a 10-basis-point increase results in a fall in both GDP and consumer price index (CPI) of 0.4 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively, over three years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields Staff working paper 2021-14 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine We investigate the economic forces behind the secular decline in bond yields. Before the anchoring of inflation in the mid-1990s, nominal shocks drove inflation, output and bond yields. Afterward, the impacts of nominal shocks were much less significant. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
August 18, 2011 Mortgage Debt and Procyclicality in the Housing Market Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2011 Ian Christensen This article focuses on the role that loans backed by housing collateral play in amplifying housing booms and, more generally, procyclicality in the housing market. The author uses a model developed to include borrower and lender households, as well as a housing market, to examine the impact that altering the loan-to-value ratio (either permanently or countercyclically) might have on the volatility of house prices and mortgage debt. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
December 12, 2004 Housing and the Macroeconomy Conference held on 12 to 14 December 2004 (papers in unedited, electronic format only) Content Type(s): Conferences and workshops