The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update Staff analytical note 2020-24 Dmitry Matveev, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Rodrigo Sekkel The neutral rate of interest is important for central banks because it helps measure the stance of monetary policy. We present updated estimates of the neutral rate in Canada using the most recent data. We expect the COVID-19 pandemic to significantly affect the fundamental drivers of the Canadian neutral rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
July 31, 2021 Research Update - July 2021 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
December 16, 2024 Delivering price stability: Learning from the past, preparing for the future Remarks Tiff Macklem Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Governor Tiff Macklem reflects on the lessons learned from the pandemic and its aftermath and outlines how the Bank is preparing for the challenges of the future. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada Staff analytical note 2016-12 Martin Kuncl During the period of 2008 to 2012, the rules for government-backed mortgage insurance were tightened on four occasions. In this note, we estimate the effects through a simple econometric exercise using a vector error-correction model (VECM). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E6, E65, G, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
April 13, 2022 Monetary Policy Report – April 2022 Canadian economic activity remains strong, and employment is robust. The Bank is forecasting growth of about 4¼% in 2022, easing to 3¼% in 2023. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
CBDC and Monetary Policy Staff analytical note 2020-4 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Yu Zhu Improving the conduct of monetary policy is unlikely to be the main motivation for central banks to issue a central bank digital currency (CBDC). While some argue that a CBDC could allow more complex transfer schemes or the ability to break below the zero lower bound, we find these benefits might be small or difficult to realize in practice. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E5, E51, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes Staff working paper 2021-41 Madeline Hanson, Daniela Hauser, Romanos Priftis How do changes to personal and corporate income tax rates in the United States affect its trading partners? Spillover effects from cuts in the two taxes differ. They are generally small and negative for corporate taxes, but sizable and positive for personal income taxes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, F, F4, F44, H, H2, H20 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
October 7, 2016 Business Outlook Survey - Autumn 2016 The autumn Business Outlook Survey provides some signs of improving business prospects, as resource-related activity appears to be gradually bottoming out and foreign demand is providing steady support to firms’ sales expectations. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
November 19, 2025 Toward a virtuous circle for productivity Remarks Nicolas Vincent Association des économistes québécois and CFA Québec Québec, Québec External Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent discusses the most critical areas to focus on to improve Canada's productivity, which would make the economy more resilient and raise everyone's standard of living. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation
The Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model Staff working paper 2018-11 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian techniques to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation