Assessing global potential output growth: April 2024 Staff analytical note 2024-10 Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Raheeb Dastagir, Eshini Ekanayake, Justin-Damien Guénette, Helen Lao, Jenna Rolland-Mills, Aidan Spencer, Lin Xiang This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates serve as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2024 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, F, F0, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Survey Evidence on Firm AI Adoption and its Implications Staff analytical paper 2026-22 Chanya Chawla, Crystal Arnburg This paper analyzes AI adoption among Canadian firms using December 2025 Business Leaders’ Pulse data. It finds that while personal use is widespread, operational adoption remains limited. Firms expect modest positive impacts on capital spending and small net negative effects on employment over the next three years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E0, E2, E22, E24, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
April 26, 2000 The Canadian Economy: Charting a Course for the Future Remarks Gordon Thiessen Chambre de commerce régionale de Sainte-Foy Sainte-Foy, Quebec The 1990s was a difficult period for Canada and the Canadian economy. From the beginning of the decade, it was clear that we had to grapple with the problems that had been hampering our economic performance through most of the 1970s and 1980s. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update Staff analytical note 2020-24 Dmitry Matveev, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Rodrigo Sekkel The neutral rate of interest is important for central banks because it helps measure the stance of monetary policy. We present updated estimates of the neutral rate in Canada using the most recent data. We expect the COVID-19 pandemic to significantly affect the fundamental drivers of the Canadian neutral rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
April 10, 2024 Monetary Policy Report – April 2024 Monetary policy is working to reduce inflationary pressures and inflation is coming down, although it will take more time to see if this progress proves durable. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% into the second quarter of 2024, ease below 2.5% in the second half of the year and return to target in 2025. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
November 19, 2019 Financial Stability in an Uncertain World (Full Remarks) Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins International Finance Club of Montréal Montréal, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins provides an update on the Canadian financial system and discusses measures in place that increase its resilience in a challenging global environment. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation
Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes Staff working paper 2021-41 Madeline Hanson, Daniela Hauser, Romanos Priftis How do changes to personal and corporate income tax rates in the United States affect its trading partners? Spillover effects from cuts in the two taxes differ. They are generally small and negative for corporate taxes, but sizable and positive for personal income taxes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, F, F4, F44, H, H2, H20 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada Staff analytical note 2016-12 Martin Kuncl During the period of 2008 to 2012, the rules for government-backed mortgage insurance were tightened on four occasions. In this note, we estimate the effects through a simple econometric exercise using a vector error-correction model (VECM). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E6, E65, G, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning Staff working paper 2022-10 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We demonstrate the usefulness of payment systems data and machine learning models for macroeconomic predictions and provide a set of econometric tools to overcome associated challenges. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Money and payments, Retail payments
April 3, 2023 Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2023 Results from the first-quarter 2023 Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys from January through March 2023 show a subdued sales outlook and plans for modest growth in capital expenditures. The labour market remains tight, but pressures have eased from high levels. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey