April 20, 2026 Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2026 Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse indicate that firms’ sentiment has improved. Responses were mostly gathered before the start of the war in the Middle East. Fewer businesses reported being affected by trade tensions with the United States, and many expect sales growth to improve. Most businesses plan to maintain or slightly increase current staffing levels and investment spending. One-year-ahead inflation expectations have ticked up slightly. Results of follow-up calls made after the start of Iran war suggest that many firms are already facing higher input costs related to the war due to rising prices for energy, fertilizer and freight. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
April 25, 2005 Understanding China's Long-Run Growth Process and Its Implications for Canada Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2005 Michael Francis, François Painchaud, Sylvie Morin In the past 25 years, China has introduced numerous reforms, gradually moving from a centrally planned economy towards a socialist market economy capable of robust and sustainable economic growth. China's increasing integration into the global economy, which has been fuelled by this recent and rapid economic growth, has already begun to affect the economies of other countries and to present challenges for policy-makers, both in China and abroad. In addition to examining the determinants of China's past and current growth, the authors consider factors that are likely to support continued growth in the future and assess the implications for both the world and the Canadian economies. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
October 26, 2022 Monetary Policy Report – October 2022 While inflation has come off its peak, it remains too high. As the economy responds to higher interest rates and as the effects of elevated commodity prices and supply disruptions fade, the Bank expects inflation to fall to about 3% in late 2023, then return to 2% in 2024. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
December 14, 1997 Recent economic and financial developments Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1997-1998 The Canadian economy expanded at an average rate of over 4 per cent through the second half of 1996 and the first three quarters of 1997. The expansion was supported by accommodative monetary conditions, substantial employment gains, low inflation, an improved fiscal postion, and strong U.S. demand. These factors will continue to underpin a scenario of sustained growth in output and employment in the period ahead. With the situation in Asia still evolving, it is difficult to be precise about the size of its overall impact on Canada. At the same time, there have been some positive developments including stronger-than-anticipated economic performance in the United States, Mexico, and Europe and declining longer-term interest rates in most industrial countries. The core rate of inflation slipped slightly below the 1 to 3 per cent target range in the closing months of 1997. With the unwinding of some of the special factors that contributed to the decline, trend inflation is expected to move back inside the range in coming months. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
April 16, 2006 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2006 Cover page Depression Scrip The examples of Depression scrip illustrated here are part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
October 25, 2005 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2005 Cover page Ready References The book is part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Making It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections Staff discussion paper 2023-29 Marc-André Gosselin, Sharon Kozicki Macroeconomic projections and risk analyses play an important role in guiding monetary policy decisions. Models are integral to this process. This paper discusses how the Bank of Canada brings research models and lessons learned from those models into the central bank projection environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
June 21, 2023 Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of June 7, 2023 This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on June 7, 2023. Content Type(s): Publications, Summary of deliberations
November 22, 2023 Ending the pain of high inflation Remarks Tiff Macklem Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce Saint John, New Brunswick Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem explains how high inflation is hurting Canadians and how monetary policy is working to bring inflation back to target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Markov‐Switching Three‐Pass Regression Filter Staff working paper 2017-13 Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon, Massimiliano Marcellino We introduce a new approach for the estimation of high-dimensional factor models with regime-switching factor loadings by extending the linear three-pass regression filter to settings where parameters can vary according to Markov processes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, C5, C53 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting