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Results from the Business Outlook Survey for the second quarter of 2022, along with those from the April, May and June 2022 Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys, suggest that capacity pressures remain elevated and expectations of significant price increases continue to be widespread. Firms anticipate that sales growth will begin to moderate from exceptionally high rates as signs of greater uncertainty emerge.

Overall, responses to the winter Business Outlook Survey indicate that business sentiment has deteriorated as the negative effects of the commodity price shock continue to unfold and spread beyond the resource sector. However, exporters not directly affected by lower commodity prices continue to benefit from strong U.S. demand and the weak Canadian dollar.

This issue of the Financial System Review reflects the Bank’s judgment that household indebtedness and housing market imbalances–the most important vulnerabilities for the Canadian financial system–have moved higher over the past six months. However, the financial system remains resilient, and macroeconomic conditions continue to improve. Other vulnerabilities discussed in this FSR are fragile fixed-income market liquidity and the capacity of an interconnected financial system to mitigate cyber threats.

With many containment measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic being lifted, results from the autumn Business Outlook Survey suggest that business sentiment has improved but remains weak across all regions. Businesses expect the pace of the recovery in their sales to slow.

Six months ago, at the time of the last Monetary Policy Report, the global economic and financial environment was volatile and highly uncertain because of the adverse situation in Asia and the fallout from the Russian debt moratorium.

At the time of the November 2000 Monetary Policy Report, although signs of the anticipated slowing of the U.S. economy were becoming apparent, the momentum of the global economy was considered strong.

Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how shared economic traits leave Canada and Mexico well placed to face global challenges.

This special issue discusses tools used at Bank of Canada to conduct current analysis - the collection and analysis of a broad spectrum of information to form a view of current economic activity. This analysis is a key input into the Bank’s monetary policy decision-making process.

We use the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM) to conduct demand- and supply-driven simulations, both of which deliver weakness in Canadian non-commodity exports relative to foreign activity in line with recent data.

Business sentiment in the winter Business Outlook Survey remains positive: the sales outlook is still healthy, despite some moderation. At the same time, capacity and labour pressures are becoming more apparent and are stimulating firms’ employment and investment plans.