Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic Staff working paper 2023-19 Serdar Kabaca, Kerem Tuzcuoglu This paper examines the contribution of several supply factors to US headline inflation since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We identify six supply shocks using a structural VAR model: labor supply, labor productivity, global supply chain, oil price, price mark-up and wage mark-up shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
October 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—October 2025—Overview The Canadian economy is adjusting to steep US tariffs on several industries and coping with elevated uncertainty. Tariffs have led to a fall in the demand for Canadian goods, affecting the broader economy. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is also leading to higher costs. Total inflation has been around 2%, while underlying inflation has continued to be about 2½%.
January 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—January 2026—Canadian economy—Tariff and other assumptions US tariffs remain elevated. The future of trade in North America continues to be highly uncertain.
February 11, 2026 Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of January 28, 2026 This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on January 28, 2026. Content Type(s): Publications, Summary of deliberations
May 20, 1997 Monetary Policy Report – May 1997 Since the last Report, the Canadian economy has advanced broadly in line with expectations. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
April 26, 2021 Your role in the Bank’s business surveys Views from Canadian firms on past, current and future business conditions provide timely input into the Bank’s monetary policy decision-making process.
May 28, 2026 Financial Stability Report—2026—Financial markets The war in the Middle East has led to periods of increased volatility and reduced liquidity in certain markets, particularly in energy. Nevertheless, markets have generally remained resilient. Equity valuations are still elevated, and credit spreads are compressed.
July 30, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—Canadian economy—Outlook Tariffs and trade uncertainty are expected to weigh on Canadian economic activity for some time. Inflation remains close to the 2% target over the scenario horizon.
April 13, 2022 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Tiff Macklem Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements