April 16, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—April 2025—Assumptions for the outlook scenarios The United States has threatened, imposed and suspended tariffs on its trading partners, including Canada. Many tariffs remain in place, and it is unclear what will happen next. This section outlines two illustrative scenarios for how US trade policy could unfold.
April 26, 2021 Your role in the Bank’s business surveys Views from Canadian firms on past, current and future business conditions provide timely input into the Bank’s monetary policy decision-making process.
July 30, 2013 Research Update - July 2013 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic Staff working paper 2023-19 Serdar Kabaca, Kerem Tuzcuoglu This paper examines the contribution of several supply factors to US headline inflation since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We identify six supply shocks using a structural VAR model: labor supply, labor productivity, global supply chain, oil price, price mark-up and wage mark-up shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
January 19, 2026 Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2025 Firms’ sentiment remains subdued, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. After a weak year, domestic sales growth is expected to improve slightly. Export sales are expected to be modest. Most businesses plan to maintain or decrease current staffing levels, and they continue to prioritize investment spending on routine maintenance. Firms reported less pressure than last quarter from tariff-related cost increases. Most do not anticipate substantial increases in selling prices. Inflation expectations remain roughly stable between 2.5% and 3%. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
April 20, 2023 Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Commerce and the Economy Opening statement Tiff Macklem Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Commerce and the Economy Ottawa, Ontario Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
April 18, 2023 Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Opening statement Tiff Macklem House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
May 20, 1997 Monetary Policy Report – May 1997 Since the last Report, the Canadian economy has advanced broadly in line with expectations. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
October 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—October 2025—Global economy Global growth has been resilient. But the historic rise in US tariffs is reshaping global trade, weighing on prospects for global growth and pushing up inflation in the United States.
October 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—October 2025—Overview The Canadian economy is adjusting to steep US tariffs on several industries and coping with elevated uncertainty. Tariffs have led to a fall in the demand for Canadian goods, affecting the broader economy. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is also leading to higher costs. Total inflation has been around 2%, while underlying inflation has continued to be about 2½%.