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Canada and Italy share many similar characteristics. We both belong to the G-7, and we are among the smaller members of that group. Our two economies vary greatly from region to region, both in terms of structure and strength.

Although many countries have abandoned monetary targeting in recent decades, monetary aggregates are still useful indicators of future economic activity. Past research has shown that, compared with other monetary aggregates and expressed in real terms, net M1 and gross M1 have traditionally provided superior leading information for output growth.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and what’s driving inflation in Canada. He also discusses how the Bank will manage the next step in the Bank’s balance sheet operations – quantitative tightening.

Results in the first quarter of 2023 show that consumer expectations for inflation one to two years ahead fell but remain elevated, particularly for services. Consumers, especially indebted households and equity-deserving groups, are facing financial pressures and limits on their spending due to high inflation and increasing interest rates. Consumers expect to spend less on discretionary services, such as travelling and eating out. Canadians continue to anticipate a recession in the next 12 months. Many are uncertain about where the economy and job markets are going. Despite this, workers still see the labour market as strong and expect wage growth to increase.

This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on June 4, 2025.

Information received since the last Monetary Policy Report, released on 17 November, points to a stronger pace of economic expansion in the United States and Europe than was expected at that time, and confirms the hesitant nature of the recovery in Japan.

Monetary policy actions take a relatively long time to affect the economy and inflation—anywhere between 12 to 24 months. Because of this, central banks must always look ahead and must put in place today the monetary conditions that are needed to help keep the economy on a sustainable path down the road. By 'sustainable' I mean a situation where economic growth and job creation are not at risk from rising inflation.

As the title of the conference suggests, we have seen many boom-and-bust cycles in the commodity sector. This raises one obvious and central question: How can we avoid them in the future?

Real GDP in Canada is expected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2018, 2.2 per cent in 2019 and 1.9 per cent in 2020.

These are challenging times, indeed. We are facing a financial crisis without comparison for generations. Most financial markets have experienced historic declines in prices and unprecedented spikes in volatility.