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5 Results

Exponentials, Polynomials, and Fourier Series: More Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada

Staff Working Paper 2002-29 David Bolder, Scott Gusba
This paper continues the work started by Bolder and Stréliski (1999) and considers two alternative classes of models for extracting zero-coupon and forward rates from a set of observed Government of Canada bond and treasury-bill prices.

The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies

Staff Working Paper 2014-53 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Garima Vasishtha
The Federal Reserve’s path for withdrawal of monetary stimulus and eventually increasing interest rates could have substantial repercussions for capital flows to emerging-market economies (EMEs).

More Than Words: Fed Chairs’ Communication During Congressional Testimonies

Staff Working Paper 2022-20 Michelle Alexopoulos, Xinfen Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Xu Zhang
We measure soft information contained in the congressional testimonies of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairs and analyze its effect on financial markets. Increases in the Chair’s text-, voice-, or face-emotion indices during these testimonies generally raise stock prices and lower their volatility.

Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails

Staff Working Paper 2018-50 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Tatevik Sekhposyan
We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty.