Structural challenges

The world is constantly changing. Factors like trade conflicts, technological advances and climate change can challenge the very foundations of the economy. We study these developments to keep our economy strong and resilient.

In an increasingly interconnected and dynamic global economy, Canada faces various structural challenges that require careful analysis. These challenges are influenced not only by external factors such as geopolitics, global trade dynamics and technological advancements but also by internal factors, including demographic shifts and environmental sustainability. Understanding and addressing these structural challenges is crucial for keeping inflation low and stable, fostering growth and ensuring the economic well-being of Canadians.

Among the issues we are studying:

  • the structural factors behind Canada’s slow growth in productivity
  • how immigration and population aging impact inflation through wages, productivity and housing demand
  • how artificial intelligence will transform the demand for skills and affect productivity
  • how tariffs impact the economy and inflation in Canada
  • the impact to Canada if the US dollar ceases to be the global currency used for trade and finance

Productivity

Productivity growth is a main factor behind economic prosperity. Yet, Canada has seen slow growth in productivity for a long time. Understanding both the underlying factors behind productivity and its likely evolution are important for identifying inflationary pressures.

The four Ds: deglobalization, demographic shifts, digitalization and decarbonization

The four Ds are reshaping the Canadian economy. They may lead to more persistent pressures on inflation and cause inflation to be more volatile. For these reasons and more, examining these four structural trends is important.

  • Deglobalization is led by shifts in trade alliances and the rearranging of supply chains. It affects how Canada interacts with the global economy.
  • Demographic shifts, including population aging and immigration, influence the labour market and the demand for housing.
  • Digitalization affects productivity and the demand for skills, particularly as businesses use artificial intelligence tools more widely.
  • Decarbonization is essential to become environmentally sustainable but creates opportunities and challenges for economic growth.

The international monetary and financial system

The international monetary and financial system is the set of rules, institutions and mechanisms that govern exchange rates, cross-border flows of capital and the use of international currencies to facilitate the exchange of goods and services between countries. This system is facing heightened uncertainty and potential structural change. Geopolitical tensions, shifts in trade policies and the evolving role of the US dollar as the dominant reserve currency are key factors influencing the system. Understanding the implications of these changes for Canada is critical.

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Applying the Wage-Common to Canadian Provinces

Staff analytical note 2018-16 Jonathan Lachaine
As at the national level, available sources of hourly wage data for Canadian provinces sometimes send conflicting signals about wage growth. This note has two objectives. First, we develop a common measure of provincial wages (the provincial wage-common) to better capture the underlying wage pressures, reflecting the overall trend across all data sources.

The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States

Staff working paper 2018-19 Anna Maria Mayda, Giovanni Peri, Walter Steingress
In this paper we study the impact of immigration to the United States on the vote for the Republican Party by analyzing county-level data on election outcomes between 1990 and 2010. Our main contribution is to separate the effect of high-skilled and low-skilled immigrants, by exploiting the different geography and timing of the inflows of these two groups of immigrants.

Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment

This note summarizes the reassessment of potential output, conducted by the Bank of Canada for the April 2018 Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the profile for potential output growth is expected to remain flat at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021.

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018

This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.

Firm Dynamics and Multifactor Productivity: An Empirical Exploration

Staff working paper 2018-15 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier
There are indications that business dynamism has declined in advanced economies. In particular, firm entry and exit rates have fallen, suggesting that the creative destruction process has lost some of its vitality. Meanwhile, productivity growth has slowed. Some believe that lower entry and exit rates partly explain the weaker productivity growth.
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Disclaimer

Bank of Canada staff produce research and analysis to support the work of the Bank and to advance knowledge in the fields of economics and finance. The research is non-partisan and evidence based. All research is produced independently from the Bank’s Governing Council. The views expressed in each paper or article are solely those of the authors and may differ from official Bank of Canada views.

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