Eugene Trostin - Latest

• Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2026 update

  Staff analytical paper 2026-21 Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Jan David Schneider, Eugene Trostin, Argyn Toktamyssov, Hannes Twieling

  We assess the Canadian nominal neutral rate to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from our assessment in 2025. We assess the US nominal neutral rate to be in the range of 2.50% to 3.50%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.25% to 3.25% reported in the 2025 assessment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission

• The rise in the Canadian term premium in a global context

  

  Sparks at Bank article Eugene Trostin, James Ketcheson, Antonio Diez de los Rios

  In Canada and abroad, yields on long-term government bonds have stayed high even as policy interest rates have fallen. This is due to rising term premiums―the extra compensation investors demand for holding these bonds. A key factor driving higher term premiums is global concerns about the ability of markets to absorb substantial amounts of government debt.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission