David Dupuis - Latest

• Computing the Accuracy of Complex Non-Random Sampling Methods: The Case of the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey

  Staff working paper 2009-10 Daniel de Munnik, David Dupuis, Mark Illing

  A number of central banks publish their own business conditions surveys based on complex non random sampling methods. The results of these surveys influence monetary policy decisions and thus affect expectations in financial markets. To date, however, no one has computed the accuracy of these surveys because their respective non-random sampling method renders this assessment non-trivial. This paper describes a methodology for modeling complex non-random sampling behaviour, and computing relevant measures of statistical confidence, based on a given survey’s historical selection practice. We apply this framework to the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey by describing the sampling method in terms of rules-based criteria, historical practices, and Bayesian probabilities. This allows us to replicate the firm selection process using Monte Carlo simulations on a comprehensive micro-dataset of Canadian firms. We find, under certain assumptions, no evidence that the Bank’s firm selection process results in biased estimates and/or wider confidence intervals.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C4, C8, C81, C9, C90 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
• September 15, 2008

  The Effects of Recent Relative Price Movements on the Canadian Economy

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2008 David Dupuis, Philippe Marcil

  Although the standard of living of Canadians has improved as a result of terms-of-trade gains created by the sharp rise in real commodity prices over the past five years or so, the commodity-price increase, combined with an exchange rate appreciation and real income gain, triggered structural adjustments by altering underlying economic incentives. The frictions generated in adjusting to the relative price shock have likely contributed to hold back aggregate productivity growth. Dupuis and Marcil examine the structural adjustments that have been required-in particular, the resource reallocation among the different sectors of the economy-and its effects on employment, output, and productivity, as well as the responses of final domestic demand and external trade flows.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles