Jia Qi Xiao

We present a measure of account-level credit card spending constructed using credit bureau microdata, capturing monthly spending for approximately 80% of adults in Canada. Our measure offers higher frequency than other publicly available consumption metrics, and can be disaggregated by age, geographic location and credit history.

Canadians usually pay their mortgages on time. But some fall behind on mortgage payments. Before they do, homeowners often increase their use of credit cards and lines of credit, and then fall behind on those payments.

Analyzing TransUnion data from 2015–2024, this study identifies a systematic timeline of distress where rising credit utilization and non-mortgage arrears precede mortgage delinquency by up to two years. This deterioration intensifies in the final six months, providing a robust suite of high-frequency indicators for monitoring emerging household stress.

I analyze the relationship between carrying a credit card balance and future financial stress. I find that carrying a balance significantly increases the likelihood that credit card holders miss future debt payments. This likelihood tends to rise as credit card balances grow and are held for long periods.