G2 - Financial Institutions and Services
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Updated Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Sovereigns
We update the Bank of Canada’s credit rating methodology for sovereigns, including our approach to assessing their fiscal position and monetary policy flexibility. We also explicitly consider climate-related factors. -
Systemic Risk and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from the Futures Market
This paper explores how the Canadian futures market contributed to banks’ systemic risk during the 2008 financial crisis. It finds that core banks as a whole traded against the periphery, in this way increasing their risk of simultaneous losses. -
A Q-Theory of Banks
Using stock market data on banks, we show that the book value of loans recognizes losses with a delay. This delayed accounting is important for regulation because the requirements regulators impose are based on book values. -
Can the characteristics of new mortgages predict borrowers’ financial stress? Insights from the 2014 oil price decline
We study the relationship between characteristics of new mortgages and borrowers’ financial stress in Canada’s energy-intensive regions following the 2014 collapse in oil prices. We find that borrowers with limited home equity were more likely to have difficulty repaying debt. -
Centralizing Over-the-Counter Markets?
Would a shift in trading in fixed-income markets—from over the counter (bilateral trading) to a centralized electronic platform—improve welfare? We use trade-level data on the secondary market for Government of Canada debt to answer this question. -
Stressed but not Helpless: Strategic Behaviour of Banks Under Adverse Market Conditions
Our stress-testing tool considers banks under stress that can strategically manage their balance sheets. Using confidential Canadian supervisory data, we assess whether bank behaviour to maximize shareholder value can amplify a hypothetical stress scenario. -
Analyzing supply and demand for business loans using microdata from the Senior Loan Officer Survey
Both supply and demand factors help determine the level of business lending in the economy, but most data show only their combined effect on prices and quantities. Using the Bank of Canada’s Senior Loan Officer Survey microdata on financial institutions’ lending conditions and demand, we separate supply from demand effects. -
Bank Runs, Bank Competition and Opacity
How is the stability of the financial sector affected by competition in the deposit market and by decisions banks make about transparency? We find that policies that aim to increase bank competition lead to higher bank deposit rates, increasing both withdrawal incentives and instability. -
Consumer Cash Withdrawal Behaviour: Branch Networks and Online Financial Innovation
The physical network of bank branches is important in how consumers manage their cash holdings. This paper estimates how consumer withdrawal behaviour responds to the distance they must travel to their branch.