Supply and Demand-Driven inflation: Decomposition and policy implications

This note decomposes Canadian inflation into supply- and demand-driven components using detailed personal consumption expenditure data. We find that both supply and demand forces contributed to the post-pandemic rise in inflation, with supply-side pressures accounting for the larger share. Demand-driven inflation is more cyclical and declines during economic downturns. We then use the decomposition in two policy applications. First, contractionary monetary policy shocks lower demand-driven inflation but have little effect on supply-driven inflation. Second, estimates of a targeted Taylor rule indicate that the Bank of Canada responds more strongly to demand-driven inflation than to supply-driven inflation. The results highlight the importance of distinguishing between the sources of inflation when evaluating inflationary pressures and monetary policy.