Research Field(s): Agent-Based Modelling Bayesian Methods Business Cycles Forecasting Inequality International Macroeconomics International Trade and Finance Macroeconomic Theory Macroeconomics Monetary and Fiscal Policy Monetary Economics

Staff research

Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2026 update

Staff analytical paper 2026-21 Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Jan David Schneider, Eugene Trostin, Argyn Toktamyssov, Hannes Twieling
We assess the Canadian nominal neutral rate to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from our assessment in 2025. We assess the US nominal neutral rate to be in the range of 2.50% to 3.50%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.25% to 3.25% reported in the 2025 assessment.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission

Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update

Staff analytical note 2025-16 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Ingomar Krohn, Jan David Schneider
We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from the range assessed in 2024.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply

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