This issue features a summary of the Bank’s annual conference, which took place in November 2011 and dealt with payments systems, and two articles that present research by Bank staff on global current account imbalances and macrofinancial risk assessment. The fourth article in this issue reviews the recent experience with inflation targeting.
This article discusses three scenarios for the adjustment of the global economy. In a “baseline” scenario—which encompasses fiscal consolidation in major advanced economies, growth-friendly structural reforms in Europe and Japan, and greater exchange rate flexibility and reforms in the emerging-market economies of Asia to induce rotation of demand away from net exports—global current account imbalances are resolved over the medium term and strong global economic growth resumes. In one alternative scenario, in which these conditions are delayed, global imbalances persist and growth is substantially reduced. In the second alternative scenario, in which advanced economies front-load fiscal consolidation, but no rotation of demand takes place in the emerging-market economies of Asia and no structural reforms are implemented in Europe and Japan, even weaker global economic growth occurs in the near term.
: Balance of payments and components; Exchange rates; Fiscal Policy; International topics; Recent economic and financial developmentsIn the years since the 2006 renewal of Canada’s inflation-control agreement, monetary policy regimes have faced significant shocks, including the global economic and financial crisis. This article reviews the recent experience with inflation targeting, including the debate about the appropriate role of monetary policy in maintaining financial stability. In the aftermath of the crisis, both the United States and Japan adopted numerical inflation objectives. Overall, a flexible inflation-targeting framework, supported by central bank independence, accountability and clear communications, remains a robust monetary policy regime for promoting economic welfare.
: Credibility; Financial stability; Inflation targets; Monetary policy frameworkThe MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF) models the interconnections between liquidity and solvency in a financial system, with multiple institutions linked through an interbank network. The MFRAF integrates funding liquidity risk as an endogenous outcome of the interactions between solvency risk and the liquidity profiles of banks, which is a complementary approach to the new Basel III Liquidity Coverage Ratio framework for Canada. The calibration exercise presented in the article highlights the vulnerability of leveraged institutions to the combination of low cash holdings and excessive dependence on short-term debt funding. As well, by quantifying the trade-offs among higher capital ratios for banks, increased liquid assets or fewer short-term liabilities in reducing risks in the banking system, the MFRAF illustrates that a regulatory framework that properly controls for systemic risk should consider these three factors in a comprehensive manner.
: Financial stability; Financial system regulation and policiesThe Bank of Canada’s annual conference, held in November 2011, brought together leading researchers from universities, central banks and other institutions from around the world. Divided into four sessions plus two keynote addresses, the conference covered such topics as the use of cash and other means of payment in retail transactions, large-value payments systems, and over-the-counter markets and central counterparties.
: Bank notes; Central bank research; Financial system regulation and policies; Monetary policy implementation; Payment clearing and settlement systems
