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On July 21, 2000, the Bank of Canada announced that the Bank and the Department of Finance would be seeking the views of market participants on the feasibility of implementing a cash management buyback program and on the possibility of reverting back to March and September maturity dates for two-year bonds.

The increase in North American stock prices in 1999 and early 2000 has generated interest in the valuation assumptions that would make these price levels sustainable. Here, commonly used valuation techniques are applied to stock markets in Canada and the United States. For the comparative yield approach, real interest rates (rather than nominal rates) are preferred as the comparator of choice to yields on stock market indexes. The spreads between real interest rates and stock market yields have generally increased over the last two years. The dividend-discount model (DDM) approach provides an analytic linkage between the equity-risk premium and the expected growth of dividends. It suggests that market values (measured at the end of February 2000) could be sustained only by rapid growth of dividends in the future or by the continued assumption of an uncharacteristically low risk premium on equity. The spectacular rise in the value of technology stocks in 1999 is noted (Chart 4), and then the valuation measures for the Canadian stock market excluding the technology sector are examined. When this is done with the comparative yield approach, yield spreads are slightly lower, and for the DDM approach, one does not need to assume as high a growth of dividends or as low a risk premium to validate market valuations. Two effects of the "new economy" on the stock market are noted. One is the lowering of dividend yields, as new-economy technology companies tend to have a high reinvestment rate and a low dividend payout rate. Another relates to the potential for a higher track for the economy's productivity growth, which would mean that higher-than-historical assumptions about future earnings growth would be more plausible. Several explanations for the decline in risk premiums on equity are considered. While short-term volatility in the stock market has, if anything, increased in recent years, low inflation and improved economic performance, along with demographics and investor preferences, may have contributed to a decline in the risk premium demanded by investors. A scenario of rapid growth of dividends in the near term slowing to historical norms in the longer term is examined. While this approach can go partway towards explaining high stock market valuations, it requires assumptions that are outside historical experience.

The Debt Management Strategy 2000-01 (released 23 March 2000) noted that the Bank of Canada and the Department of Finance were assessing the potential for expanding the existing bond buyback program to include cash management purposes.

Comments: On 18 July 2000, the government and Bank of Canada made public a discussion paper concerning the management of the federal government's cash balances. The paper outlined the current framework and proposed changes, intended to increase competition and to strengthen the management of risks, in particular the credit risks involved in the investment of […]

A discussion paper prepared jointly by the Department of Finance and the Bank of Canada, and being made public today, is proposing changes to the government’s approach to auctioning and investing its Canadian dollar cash balances.

With the technological revolution that is currently sweeping the globe, dealing with change is a growing challenge for businesses these days. This revolution is erasing national frontiers, intensifying competition, and transforming economies everywhere.

"Low and stable inflation is good for business, good for the consumer, and good for the economy as a whole," Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen told the Kelowna Chamber of Commerce today in a luncheon speech that focused on the contribution that monetary policy makes towards an environment that supports economic activity. Mr. Thiessen […]

The strip bond sub-committee of the Investment Dealers Association (IDA), in a letter dated June 23, 1999, has recommended that “the current ceiling on reconstitution of bonds should be removed to allow reconstitution beyond the quantity stripped by book entry, which at times may be beyond the original issue size”.

Proceedings of a seminar held by the Bank of Canada, June 2000 (proceedings volume, available in electronic format only)

Professor Angela Redish of the University of British Columbia has been chosen to fill the visiting economist position of Special Adviser in the Bank of Canada for a one-year term beginning in August 2000.