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8289 Results

A Discussion of the Reliability of Results Obtained with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions

Staff Working Paper 1998-4 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier
In a recent article, Faust and Leeper (1997) discuss reasons why inference from structural VARs identified with long-run restrictions may not be reliable. In this paper, the authors argue that there are reasons to believe that Faust and Leeper's arguments are not devastating in practice. First, simulation exercises suggest that this approach does well when […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3

Tendance des dépenses publiques et de l'inflation et évolution comparative du taux de chômage au Canada et aux États-Unis

Staff Working Paper 1998-3 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier
The authors' purpose in this paper is to isolate the respective contributions of budgetary and monetary policy in Canada and the United States to the behaviour of unemployment rates in the two countries. Their method consists of estimating VAR models and using long-term identification restrictions to perform a structural analysis. Budgetary policy shocks are defined […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E6

International Borrowing, Specialization and Unemployment in a Small, Open Economy

Staff Working Paper 1998-2 Patrick Osakwe, Shouyong Shi
Empirical evidence suggests that the unemployment rate and the export/GNP ratio are positively correlated with external debt across developing countries. This paper develops a dynamic model that provides an explanation for the aforementioned relationships. The central idea of our paper is that international borrowing affects unemployment and specialization patterns by unevenly changing the risk-sharing structure—across […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, J, J6
February 5, 1998

International developments and the prospects for the Canadian economy

A year ago, in early 1997, prospects for global economic growth were very promising. World economic activity had strengthened and was expected to accelerate further, with the benefit of low inflation, reduced fiscal imbalances, and stable or declining interest rates. In Canada too, output and employment growth had picked up.
January 29, 1998

Annual Report 1997

With inflation remaining low for the sixth consecutive year, the Canadian economy recorded a strong expansion of about 4 per cent through 1997.
Content Type(s): Publications, Annual Report
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