November 8, 2016 Wood, Wheat, Wheels and the Web: Historical Pivots and Future Prospects for Canadian Exports Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Atlantic Institute for Market Studies Halifax, Nova Scotia Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the historical evolution and future prospects for Canadian exports. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Development economics, Exchange rates, Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration
On the Value of Virtual Currencies Staff Working Paper 2016-42 Wilko Bolt, Maarten van Oordt This paper develops an economic framework to analyze the exchange rate of virtual currency. Three components are important: first, the current use of virtual currency to make payments; second, the decision of forward-looking investors to buy virtual currency (thereby effectively regulating its supply); and third, the elements that jointly drive future consumer adoption and merchant acceptance of virtual currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Digital currencies and fintech, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, F, F3, F31, G, G1
Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns Staff Working Paper 2016-32 Kimberly Berg, Nelson C. Mark We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12
July 13, 2016 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Carolyn A. Wilkins, Stephen S. Poloz Ottawa, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments
Ce que révèle une analyse sectorielle des dynamiques récentes de l’inflation au Canada Staff Analytical Note 2016-7 Laurence Savoie-Chabot Decomposing total inflation in Canada as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) into its key macroeconomic factors, as presented in the most recent Monetary Policy Report, is an interesting exercise that shows how the exchange rate pass-through, commodity prices and the output gap have influenced the evolution of the total inflation rate over time. This aggregate approach, however, may mask important sectoral changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
A Bitcoin Standard: Lessons from the Gold Standard Staff Working Paper 2016-14 Warren E. Weber This paper imagines a world in which countries are on the Bitcoin standard, a monetary system in which all media of exchange are Bitcoin or are backed by it. The paper explores the similarities and differences between the Bitcoin standard and the gold standard and describes the media of exchange that would exist under the Bitcoin standard. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Exchange rates, Financial services, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58
Predictive Ability of Commodity Prices for the Canadian Dollar Staff Analytical Note 2016-2 Kimberly Berg, Pierre Guérin, Yuko Imura Recent sharp declines in commodity prices and the simultaneous depreciation of the Canadian dollar (CAD) relative to the U.S. dollar (USD) have rekindled an interest in the relationship between commodity prices and the CAD-USD exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates
Limits to Arbitrage and Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity Staff Discussion Paper 2016-4 James Pinnington, Maral Shamloo We document an increase in deviations from short-term covered interest rate parity (CIP) in the first half of 2015. Since the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision to abandon its minimum exchange rate policy, both the magnitude and volatility of deviations from CIP have increased across several currency pairs. The effect is particularly pronounced for pairs involving the Swiss franc. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15
A New Measure of the Canadian Effective Exchange Rate Staff Discussion Paper 2016-1 Russell Barnett, Karyne B. Charbonneau, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle Canada’s international competitiveness has received increasing attention in recent years as exports have fallen short of expectations and Canada has lost market share. This paper asks whether the Bank of Canada’s current effective exchange rate measure, the CERI, is still an accurate measure of Canada’s international competitiveness. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F3, F31
The Complex Adjustment of the Canadian Economy to Lower Commodity Prices Staff Analytical Note 2016-1 Julien Champagne, Nikita Perevalov, Hope Pioro, Dany Brouillette, Andrew Agopsowicz In this analytical note, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the complex structural adjustment facing the Canadian economy following the commodity price decline since mid-2014. We quantify separately the impacts coming from the commodity sector restructuring and the broader effect of significantly lower terms of trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E5, E52, J, J2, Q, Q0, Q00