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43 Results

September 6, 2018

An Update on Canada’s Economic Resilience

Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Saskatchewan Trade & Export Partnership Regina, Saskatchewan
Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses economic developments since the July Monetary Policy Report and Governing Council’s deliberations leading to yesterday’s policy rate decision.

Estimating the Impacts of Tariff Changes: Two Illustrative Scenarios

Staff Analytical Note 2018-29 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Anthony Landry
We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to construct a quantitative Ricardian framework similar to Caliendo and Parro (2015) to isolate and estimate the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes.

Responding to the First Era of Globalization: Canadian Trade Policy, 1870–1913

Staff Working Paper 2018-42 Ian Keay, Patrick Alexander
In this paper we document Canada’s trade policy response to late-nineteenth- and earlytwentieth-century globalization. We link newly digitized annual product-specific data on the value of Canadian imports and duties paid from 1870–1913 to establishment-specific production and location information drawn from the manuscripts of the 1871 industrial census.

Weakness in Non-Commodity Exports: Demand versus Supply Factors

Staff Analytical Note 2018-28 José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Jonathan Swarbrick
We use the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM) to conduct demand- and supply-driven simulations, both of which deliver weakness in Canadian non-commodity exports relative to foreign activity in line with recent data.

What Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth?

This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses.

Canada’s Experience with Trade Policy

Staff Discussion Paper 2018-1 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Daniel de Munnik, Laura Murphy
This paper compiles the contemporary view on three major Canadian-led trade policies that have marked Canada’s economic history since Confederation: the National Policy (1879), the Canada–US Agreement on Automotive Products (Auto Pact, 1965) and the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA, 1989, including its extension to the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, 1994).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, N, N7, N71, N72

Capital-Goods Imports and US Growth

Staff Working Paper 2018-1 Michele Cavallo, Anthony Landry
Capital-goods imports have become an increasing source of growth for the U.S. economy. To understand this phenomenon, we build a neoclassical growth model with international trade in capital goods in which agents face exogenous paths of total factor and investment-specific productivity measures.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Productivity, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E2, F, F2, F4, O, O3, O4

The Welfare Effects of Protection: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Canada’s National Policy

Staff Working Paper 2017-18 Patrick Alexander, Ian Keay
In this paper, we study the impact of Canada’s adoption of protectionist trade policy in 1879 on Canadian welfare. Under the National Policy the Canadian average weighted tariff increased from 14% to 21%. The conventional view is that this was a distortionary policy that negatively affected Canadian welfare.
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