Understanding Firms’ Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey Staff Working Paper 2016-7 Simon Richards, Matthieu Verstraete Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C1, C2, C25, D, D2, D21, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
January 20, 2016 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Ottawa, Ontario Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments
November 19, 2015 A Survey of Consumer Expectations for Canada Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Marc-André Gosselin, Mikael Khan The Bank of Canada recently launched a quarterly survey to measure the expectations of Canadian households: the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE). The data collected provide comprehensive information about consumer expectations for and uncertainty about inflation, the labour market and household finance. This article describes the CSCE and illustrates its potential to offer rich information about Canadian consumers for researchers and policy-makers. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, J, J0
November 19, 2015 Measuring Durable Goods and Housing Prices in the CPI: An Empirical Assessment Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Patrick Sabourin, Pierre Duguay While the CPI is the most commonly used measure to track inflation, it is not fully consistent with a true cost-of-living index (COLI). Although the official treatment of durable goods and housing in the CPI represents an acceptable compromise in the current environment of low and stable inflation, Sabourin and Duguay suggest that it would be worthwhile to consider treating housing and durables in the same way and bringing the actual CPI closer to a COLI. This could be accomplished by employing an enhanced user-cost approach to calculate the imputed cost of the services provided by the use of durable goods or housing. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
October 27, 2015 Inflation Targeting—A Matter of Time Remarks Timothy Lane CFA Society Atlantic Canada Halifax, Nova Scotia Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses monetary policy decision making and how the Bank assesses the underlying trend in inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy framework
A Comprehensive Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation for Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2015-12 Mikael Khan, Louis Morel, Patrick Sabourin This paper evaluates the usefulness of various measures of core inflation for the conduct of monetary policy. Traditional exclusion-based measures of core inflation are found to perform relatively poorly across a range of evaluation criteria, in part due to their inability to filter unanticipated transitory shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
October 21, 2015 Release of the Monetary Policy Report Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz, Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa, Ontario Press conference following the release of the Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments
Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: Theory and Recent Evidence Staff Discussion Paper 2015-9 Laurence Savoie-Chabot, Mikael Khan In an open economy such as Canada’s, exchange rate movements can have a material impact on consumer prices. This is particularly important in the current context, with the significant depreciation of the Canadian dollar vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar since late 2012. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, F, F3, F31
Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Currency of Invoicing and Market Share Staff Working Paper 2015-31 Michael Devereux, Wei Dong, Ben Tomlin This paper investigates the impact of market structure on the joint determination of exchange rate pass-through and currency of invoicing in international trade. A novel feature of the study is the focus on market share of firms on both sides of the market—that is, exporting firms and importing firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4
July 15, 2015 Release of the Monetary Policy Report Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Ottawa, Ontario Press conference following the release of the Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments