How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts? Staff working paper 2018-2 Monica Jain, Christopher S. Sutherland We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency Staff discussion paper 2023-19 Chinara Azizova, Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C58, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
April 23, 2009 Bank of Canada releases Monetary Policy Report Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario In the Report, the Bank noted that in an environment of continued high uncertainty, the global recession has intensified and become more synchronous since the Bank's January Monetary Policy Report Update, with weaker-than-expected activity in all major economies. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
January 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—Canadian economy—Outlook Economic growth in Canada is projected to rise to around 1.8% in 2025 and 2026, outpacing potential output, and excess supply is gradually absorbed. Inflation is expected to remain close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.
From He-Cession to She-Stimulus? The Labor Market Impact of Fiscal Policy Across Gender Staff working paper 2021-42 Alica Ida Bonk, Laure Simon The effects of fiscal policy shocks on labour market outcomes across gender depend on the type of public expenditure. Women benefit most from increases in the government wage bill, while men are the main beneficiaries of higher investment spending. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, J, J1, J16, J2, J21 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Using new loan data to better understand mortgage holders Staff analytical note 2025-1 Odae Al Aboud, Saarah Sheikh, Adam Su, Yang Xu The Bank of Canada is using an enhanced dataset that tracks the stock of outstanding mortgages and home equity lines of credit held by federally regulated lenders. This paper highlights some of the new details in the dataset and how they impact the Bank’s understanding of the mortgage market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
October 22, 2003 Opening Statement before the House of Commons Finance Committee Opening statement David Dodge House of Commons Finance Committee The last time that Paul and I appeared before this committee was after the release of our April Report. At that time, inflation was well above its 2 per cent target, and short-term inflation expectations had edged up. Although inflation was being pushed up by special factors, there were also signs that strong domestic demand was working to broaden pressures on prices. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
June 20, 2010 The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Cross-Border Funding Financial System Review - June 2010 Harri Vikstedt, Jonathan Witmer, Yaz Terajima Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Calibration for Single-Location Retailers Technical report No. 109 Heng Chen, Rallye Shen Calibrated weights are created to (a) reduce the nonresponse bias; (b) reduce the coverage error; and (c) make the weighted estimates from the sample consistent with the target population in terms of certain key variables. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Retail payments
January 31, 2018 Research Update - January 2018 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters