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At the time of the October Monetary Policy Report, the Bank projected that core inflation would rise in the fourth quarter of 2002, reflecting a combination of one-off factors - including the rise in insurance premiums - and the “echo effect” from developments towards the end of 2001.

For six months in 2025, Canada imposed counter tariffs on a wide range of goods from the United States. This short and well defined episode offers a unique opportunity to examine how Canadian retailers adjust prices in response to tariffs—and how retailers’ expectations and transparency with consumers affect pricing decisions.

The Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM) is a new nonlinear two-country dynamic model that captures rare but severe adverse shocks. The RAMM can be used to assess the financial stability implications of both domestic and foreign-originated risk scenarios.

2011 was a challenging year for the global economy. Amid global turbulence, Canada’s macroeconomic policy framework has stood us well. The 2011 Annual Report provides a Message from the Governor, highlights key achievements over the year, describes the Bank’s corporate governance, and presents financial statements in conjunction with Management’s Discussion and Analysis.

The two key components of the Bank's monetary policy framework are an "anchor," the inflation target, and a "float," the flexible exchange rate. Living by the ocean, you know better than I that a good mooring is one that keeps a boat in place, yet allows some give and take for the wind and the tide.

Using a novel data set for 17 countries dating from 1900 to 2013, we characterize business cycles in both small developed and developing countries in a model with financial frictions and a common shock structure. We estimate the model jointly for these 17 countries using Bayesian methods.

Donald Gow had a great interest in public administration and in budgetary reform in the federal government.1 He was one in a long line of Queen's professors who have focused on various budgetary matters at the federal level.

Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Monetary Policy Report and the key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the monetary policy decision.

The Financial System Review concludes that the overall level of risk to Canada’s financial system is largely unchanged from six months ago. While household vulnerabilities have moved higher, the ongoing economic recovery in Canada means that the overall risk remains the same. The Bank highlights three vulnerabilities in the financial system: the elevated level of household indebtedness, imbalances in some regional housing markets and the fragility of liquidity in fixed-income markets.

We estimate an aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor near or below one, which implies that capital deepening cannot explain the global decline in labor's share. Our methodology derives from transition paths in the neo-classical growth model.