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The Canadian economy is expected to expand by 2.1 per cent this year and in 2018.

Real GDP in Canada is expected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2018, 2.2 per cent in 2019 and 1.9 per cent in 2020.

The Bank updated its forecast for real economic growth to 1.3 percent this year, 1.9 percent next year and 2.0 percent in 2021.

The Bank projects that growth in the Canadian economy will accelerate from 1.6 percent this year to 2 percent in 2021.

The Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by almost 4 percent on average in 2021 and 2022, following a decline of about 5 ½ percent in 2020.

While a second wave of COVID-19 is hurting Canadians now, the economy should rebound strongly later in the year. The Bank is forecasting growth of around 4 percent this year and close to 5 percent in 2022.

As the economy reopens after the third wave of COVID-19, growth should rebound strongly. The Bank is forecasting growth of about 6 percent this year, slowing to about 4 ½ percent in 2022 and 3 ¼ percent in 2023.

Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri talks about changes to the labour market, and how the pandemic affected Canadian workers. He also discusses how the Bank is adapting labour market analysis tools to help guide monetary policy decisions that will support a more inclusive recovery.

The Canadian economy is now clearly in excess demand, and inflation is high and broadening. The Bank is projecting inflation to decline to about 3% by the end of 2023, and to return to the 2% target by the end of 2024.

Monetary policy is working to reduce inflationary pressures and inflation is coming down, although it will take more time to see if this progress proves durable. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% into the second quarter of 2024, ease below 2.5% in the second half of the year and return to target in 2025.