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February 23, 2021

Canada’s labour market: rebound, recuperation and restructuring

Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Edmonton Chamber of Commerce and Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta
Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the COVID-19 pandemic and major economic forces are affecting the labour market, and the need for all groups to benefits from the recovery.

Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation

Staff working paper 2024-13 Joshua Brault
I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered posteriors.
December 15, 1999

The Exchange Rate, Productivity, and the Standard of Living

This article examines the recent proposition that the decline in Canada's standard of living relative to that of the United States is causally related to the decline in our exchange rate. The authors explore the main channels through which the exchange rate and the standard of living could be related—productivity and the terms of trade—focusing mainly on productivity. They conclude that the decline in world commodity prices and weak demand for domestic output were affecting both Canada's standard of living and the exchange rate and that the flexible exchange rate regime itself did not play an independent role.

Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation

We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables).

The Dealer-to-Client Repo Market: A Buoy on a Swaying Sea

In 2024, the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) rose 7 basis points above the Bank of Canada’s target overnight rate as settlement balances declined and hedge fund borrowing increased by $30 billion, straining dealers’ balance sheets. Exercising market power, dealers raised rates, and as client activity grew, these higher rates increasingly influenced CORRAs deviation from target.
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