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Gordon Thiessen, Governor of the Bank of Canada, delivered the HERMES-Glendon Lecture at York University, Toronto, in March 1995. The speech focussed on the interrelationships of uncertainty and the transmission of monetary policy to the economy. It looked at how the various types of uncertainty influence the behaviour of economic actors, and at how uncertainty affects the transmission of monetary policy through the economy. The first part of the lecture outlines the Bank of Canada's view of the transmission mechanism, with considerable attention paid to the role of uncertainty. In the second part, the various ways in which the Bank has tried to reduce uncertainty are discussed. The various kinds of uncertainty that impinge on the economy and on the policy process are addressed.

Since the April Monetary Policy Report, there have been a number of unanticipated developments that have changed the outlook for inflation and economic activity in Canada.

A quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances as well as topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada.

Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the relationship between inflation and employment and how the Bank of Canada is working to cool an overheated economy.

Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers provides an economic update and discusses why the Bank is raising rates fast to tackle high inflation.

By All Accounts is the fifth and final book in the Bank's souvenir history series. This volume presents a portrait of the Bank from the perspective of outside observers, showing how Canadians have perceived the performance of their central bank over the decades through the eyes of those who monitor its work on the public's behalf.

The Canadian economy expanded at an average rate of over 4 per cent through the second half of 1996 and the first three quarters of 1997. The expansion was supported by accommodative monetary conditions, substantial employment gains, low inflation, an improved fiscal postion, and strong U.S. demand. These factors will continue to underpin a scenario of sustained growth in output and employment in the period ahead. With the situation in Asia still evolving, it is difficult to be precise about the size of its overall impact on Canada. At the same time, there have been some positive developments including stronger-than-anticipated economic performance in the United States, Mexico, and Europe and declining longer-term interest rates in most industrial countries. The core rate of inflation slipped slightly below the 1 to 3 per cent target range in the closing months of 1997. With the unwinding of some of the special factors that contributed to the decline, trend inflation is expected to move back inside the range in coming months.

In response to the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, policy-makers around the globe are providing unprecedented stimulus to support economic recovery and are pursuing a radical set of reforms to build a more resilient financial system.

The main goal of monetary policy is to help the country achieve strong, sustainable economic performance, and, in doing so, to contribute to rising living standards for Canadians. Experience has shown that the best way for a central bank to meet this goal, given the instruments at its disposal, is by keeping inflation low and stable. Low and stable inflation increases confidence in the future value of money, and allows for clear price signals.

Today, we released our October Monetary Policy Report, in which we discuss economic and financial trends in the context of Canada's inflation-control strategy.