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In a speech to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce today, Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen gave an update on the Bank's outlook for the Canadian economy. He also outlined plans to move to a system of pre-set dates for announcing changes in official interest rates as part of the Bank's ongoing efforts to improve […]

Because the trade environment remains so uncertain, the path for Canadian growth and inflation is less clear than usual. If the trade conflict were to escalate or de-escalate, those shifts would alter economic outcomes.

Governor Tiff Macklem discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

In this issue, Bank researchers discuss the muted recovery from the 2007–09 financial crisis and possible causes. There are also discussions about the Bank’s new Canadian survey of household expectations, measuring both durable goods and housing prices in the CPI and how regulatory changes may affect monetary policy operating frameworks. In the final article, improvements to the management of Canada’s foreign exchange reserves are introduced.

One of the most important factors that must be considered if countries are thinking about lowering the target level of inflation much below 2 per cent is the zero interest bound. Targeting inflation rates that are too low, the authors note, may restrict the ability of monetary policy to respond to economic shocks by limiting the amount by which interest rates can be eased.

As the economy reopens after the third wave of COVID-19, growth should rebound strongly. The Bank is forecasting growth of about 6 percent this year, slowing to about 4 ½ percent in 2022 and 3 ¼ percent in 2023.

Businesses’ expectations for the pace of economic activity over the next 12 months remain positive, although somewhat less so than in the winter survey.

Supplemental questions on the appreciation of the Canadian dollar - April 2004

Supplemental questions on the appreciation of the Canadian dollar - February 2004

Firms overall remain positive about the economic outlook.

We show that a large share of low-frequency (quarterly) movements in Canadian government bond yields can be explained by macroeconomic news, even though high-frequency (daily) changes are driven by other shocks. Furthermore, we show that US macro news—not domestic news— explains most of the quarterly variation in Canadian bond yields.

Canada’s economy faces two significant shocks—the plunge in global oil prices and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.