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The Bank of Canada sees both upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook, but the base-case scenario is considered the most likely outcome.

Monetary policy has worked to reduce price pressures in the Canadian economy. Inflation is now around 2% and is expected to remain near the middle of the Bank of Canada’s control range of 1% to 3% over the projection.

Prices change all the time, and some change more often than others. How often prices change can affect how quickly shifts in economic conditions affect inflation.

Economic growth in Canada is forecast to pick up gradually. Inflation is expected to remain around 2% as core inflation slows.

Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Monetary Policy Report and the key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the monetary policy decision.

On Wednesday, October 23, 2024, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the target for the overnight rate. A press release will provide a brief explanation of the decision. The Bank will also publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) at the same time as the rate decision.

The rise in unemployment since early 2023 has been mainly due to increased difficulty finding a job. Layoffs have not played a large role.

Overall, global economic growth continues to evolve as expected. However, the composition of that growth has changed.

Economic growth in Canada is forecast to pick up gradually and average 2¼% over the projection. Inflation is expected to remain near the 2% target.

Canadian economic activity is evolving largely as expected. Inflation is now near the middle of the Bank of Canada’s control range of 1% to 3%.