Staff research

Supply disruptions were a key driver of inflation during the pandemic. If such disruptions occur more often in the future, they could lead to more frequent and persistent periods of high inflation. Central banks could then find it harder to bring inflation back to target while supporting economic activity.

As businesses worldwide are adopting artificial intelligence to boost productivity, little has been known about how businesses in Canada are using it. Survey results from the Bank of Canada show that AI adoption remains at an early stage for many Canadian businesses. As well, businesses expect AI to affect capital spending and employment, but only gradually.

AI has the potential to reshape the labour market by automating some tasks for many workers. Even though evidence of a significant impact on the labour market remains limited, AI appears to be making it harder for some Canadians to find work in occupations that are most exposed to it.

Private credit—business loans made by non-bank lenders—has expanded rapidly worldwide, but for Canadian businesses, it remains a stable and relatively limited source of funding. Canadian asset managers, however, are actively participating in private credit globally, creating exposures that could matter for financial stability in Canada.

After the war in the Middle East began, futures markets hinted at how long oil prices could stay above their pre-war levels. Options on those futures further reveal how investors see the range and balance of risks around future oil prices—which helps central banks assess risks to inflation.

Businesses that can’t easily access credit experience slower growth. Indigenous-owned firms are less likely than other firms in Canada to use conventional lending products—like loans or lines of credit from banks. We look at why Indigenous-owned businesses may face barriers to accessing credit.

As interest in tokenization grows, so too does the focus on the design of tokenized systems. Different approaches—such as centralized or decentralized systems—could achieve similar outcomes. But the choice of design involves consequential trade-offs that shape how the entire ecosystem evolves.

Tokenization involves representing traditional assets as tokens on a digital platform. This financial innovation has the potential to reshape money and markets, but a common approach for comparing system designs and weighing efficiency gains against risks has yet to be defined. We offer such an approach to improve understanding of this expanding technology and guide policy discussions.

For six months in 2025, Canada imposed counter tariffs on a wide range of goods from the United States. This short and well defined episode offers a unique opportunity to examine how Canadian retailers adjust prices in response to tariffs—and how retailers’ expectations and transparency with consumers affect pricing decisions.

Canada’s economic prosperity depends on trade. But global maritime shipping networks have been reshaped in ways that have reduced Canada’s relative connectivity and carrying capacity. This less-central role for the country could mean greater exposure to supply chain disruptions that could increase the cost of doing business.