Research

High-quality, innovative research underpins everything we do. Find out about the Bank’s current research priorities, explore the broad range of staff research that our people have the intellectual freedom to pursue, and learn about the ways in which the Bank supports and collaborates with the external research community. You can also browse our research and subscribe to our monthly research newsletter and latest research feed.

Research Priorities

Guided by the Bank’s medium-term plan and shaped by the policy environment, the Bank dedicates significant effort and resources to a range of annual and multi-year research priorities.

The Bank’s Medium‐term Research Plan, 2019–21

Increasing the relevance and visibility of Bank research

Digital Currencies and Fintech

Understanding digital currencies and related financial technologies is an important part of our research agenda.

Toward 2021

Reviewing the Monetary Policy Framework.

Staff Research

Staff research is produced independently from the Bank’s Governing Council. This research may support or challenge prevailing policy orthodoxy or differ from official Bank views. Therefore, views expressed are solely those of the authors, and no responsibility for them should be attributed to the Bank.

Staff Analytical Notes

Staff Analytical Notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.

Author List

Listing of current and past authors of Bank research papers, articles and other publications, 1994 to present.

Staff Working Papers

Staff Working Papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.

Our People

Profiles of the Bank’s economic research staff, featuring sections on their publications, education, and research interests.

Staff Discussion Papers

Staff Discussion Papers are completed staff research studies on a wide variety of subjects relevant to central bank policy.

Research Newsletter

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter summarizing internal and external publication contributions by Bank of Canada researchers.

Collaboration

Financial System Research Centre

The FSRC promotes financial system research in Canada to inform policy and improve the economic and financial well-being of Canadians.

Visiting Scholar Program

Information on the Bank of Canada’s collaborative research program for outstanding scholars

Conferences, Seminars and Workshops

Papers and proceedings from Bank of Canada conferences, seminars, and workshops

Partnerships in Innovation and Technology (PIVOT) Program

We’re looking for innovators to help us respond to challenges that may not have a commercial solution readily available.

Awards

Research Paper Awards

At the Bank of Canada, we’re pleased to offer awards for research papers by students and by staff.

Scholarship Awards

The Bank of Canada’s Scholarship and Work Placement program is designed to assist students with disabilities and Indigenous students in furthering their education and to encourage them to take an interest in the work performed by the Bank of Canada.

Fellowship Program

Learn more about a program to foster excellence in research in Canada and develop partnerships with experts outside the Bank of Canada in areas important to the Bank’s mandate.

The Governor's Challenge

The Governor’s Challenge simulates the monetary policy decision-making process by putting students in the role of advisor to the Bank’s Governing Council.

Latest Research

Unit-Root Tests and Excess Returns

Staff Working Paper 1996-10 Marie-Josée Godbout, Simon van Norden
Several recent papers have presented evidence from foreign exchange and other markets suggesting that the log of excess returns can be characterized as first-order integrated processes (I(1)). This contrasts sharply with the "conventional" wisdom that log prices are integrated of order one I(1) and that log returns should therefore be integrated of order zero I(0), and even more sharply with the view that past returns have no ability to predict future returns (weak market efficiency).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, F, F3, F31

Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation?

Staff Working Paper 1996-9 Allan Crawford, Marcel Kasumovich
The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that inflation uncertainty increases at higher levels of inflation. Our analysis is based on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) class of models, which allow the conditional variance of the error term to be time-varying. Since this variance is a proxy for inflation uncertainty, a positive relationship between the conditional variance and inflation would be interpreted as evidence that inflation uncertainty increases with the level of inflation.

Interpreting Money-Supply and Interest-Rate Shocks as Monetary-Policy Shocks

Staff Working Paper 1996-8 Marcel Kasumovich
In this paper two shocks are analysed using Canadian data: a money-supply shock ("M-shock") and an interest-rate shock ("R-shock"). Money-supply shocks are derived using long-run restrictions based on long-run propositions of monetary theory. Thus, an M-shock is represented by an orthogonalized innovation in the trend shared by money and prices.

An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada

Staff Working Paper 1996-7 Denise Côté, Doug Hostland
This paper attempts to identify the trend unemployment rate, an empirical concept, using cointegration theory. The authors examine whether there is a cointegrating relationship between the observed unemployment rate and various structural factors, focussing neither on the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) nor on the natural rate of unemployment, but rather on the trend unemployment rate, which they define in terms of cointegration.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24