Research

High-quality, innovative research underpins everything we do. Find out about the Bank’s current research priorities, explore the broad range of staff research that our people have the intellectual freedom to pursue, and learn about the ways in which the Bank supports and collaborates with the external research community. You can also browse our research and subscribe to our monthly research newsletter and latest research feed.

Research Priorities

Guided by the Bank’s medium-term plan and shaped by the policy environment, the Bank dedicates significant effort and resources to a range of annual and multi-year research priorities.

The Bank’s Medium‐term Research Plan, 2019–21

Increasing the relevance and visibility of Bank research

Digital Currencies and Fintech

Understanding digital currencies and related financial technologies is an important part of our research agenda.

Toward 2021

Reviewing the Monetary Policy Framework.

Staff Research

Staff research is produced independently from the Bank’s Governing Council. This research may support or challenge prevailing policy orthodoxy or differ from official Bank views. Therefore, views expressed are solely those of the authors, and no responsibility for them should be attributed to the Bank.

Staff Analytical Notes

Staff Analytical Notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.

Author List

Listing of current and past authors of Bank research papers, articles and other publications, 1994 to present.

Staff Working Papers

Staff Working Papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.

Our People

Profiles of the Bank’s economic research staff, featuring sections on their publications, education, and research interests.

Staff Discussion Papers

Staff Discussion Papers are completed staff research studies on a wide variety of subjects relevant to central bank policy.

Research Newsletter

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter summarizing internal and external publication contributions by Bank of Canada researchers.

Collaboration

Financial System Research Centre

The FSRC promotes financial system research in Canada to inform policy and improve the economic and financial well-being of Canadians.

Visiting Scholar Program

Information on the Bank of Canada’s collaborative research program for outstanding scholars

Conferences, Seminars and Workshops

Papers and proceedings from Bank of Canada conferences, seminars, and workshops

Partnerships in Innovation and Technology (PIVOT) Program

We’re looking for innovators to help us respond to challenges that may not have a commercial solution readily available.

Awards

Research Paper Awards

At the Bank of Canada, we’re pleased to offer awards for research papers by students and by staff.

Scholarship Awards

The Bank of Canada’s Scholarship and Work Placement program is designed to assist students with disabilities and Indigenous students in furthering their education and to encourage them to take an interest in the work performed by the Bank of Canada.

Fellowship Program

Learn more about a program to foster excellence in research in Canada and develop partnerships with experts outside the Bank of Canada in areas important to the Bank’s mandate.

The Governor's Challenge

The Governor’s Challenge simulates the monetary policy decision-making process by putting students in the role of advisor to the Bank’s Governing Council.

Latest Research

L'endettement du Canada et ses effets sur les taux d'intérêt réels de long terme

Staff Working Paper 1996-14 Jean-François Fillion
This paper examines the effects that Canada's indebtedness has on Canadian real long-term interest rates, using the vector error-correction model (VECM). Our results show that there is a strongly cointegrated relationship between real interest rates in Canada, U.S. real interest rates, and Canadian public and external debt ratios.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F30, H, H6, H60

The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Part 4. A Semi-Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output: Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter

Technical Report No. 77 Leo Butler
The level of potential output plays a central role in the Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). This report, the fourth in a series documenting QPM, describes a general method to measure potential output, as well as its implementation in the QPM system.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E2, E23

Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching and Stock Market Crashes

Staff Working Paper 1996-13 Simon van Norden, Huntley Schaller
This paper uses regime-switching econometrics to study stock market crashes and to explore the ability of two very different economic explanations to account for historical crashes. The first explanation is based on historical accounts of "manias and panics."
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12

The Commodity-Price Cycle and Regional Economic Performance in Canada

Staff Working Paper 1996-12 Mario Lefebvre, Stephen S. Poloz
This paper attempts to provide one interpretation of the broad regional economic history of Canada since the early 1970s. As the title of the paper suggests, we believe that, to a significant degree, regional diversity in economic performance reflects movements in Canada's terms of trade, which very frequently are tied to developments in world commodity markets.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Detect Bubbles?

Staff Working Paper 1996-11 Simon van Norden, Robert Vigfusson
Work on testing for bubbles has caused much debate, much of which has focussed on methodology. Monte Carlo simulations reported in Evans (1991) showed that standard tests for unit roots and cointegration frequently reject the presence of bubbles even when such bubbles are present by construction. Evans referred to this problem as the pitfall of testing for bubbles.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52