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Although the global financial system continues to recover gradually from the unprecedented dislocations experienced in recent years, significant downside risks remain. Market concerns over acute fiscal strains in some euro-area countries have intensified sharply in recent weeks.

FSR Highlights - December 2010

Building on an earlier Review article, the authors critically reassess the premise that exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) has declined in light of recent studies of the issue in the context of a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium framework.

The recent global crisis was characterized by a remarkable intensity in the negative feedback process between financial sector developments and the real economy.

Trends in debt issuance have changed significantly over the past decade, both prior to the financial crisis and subsequently.

The premise that exchange rate pass-through has declined is critically reassessed; intensity in the negative feedback process between financial sector developments and the real economy during the recent global crisis is examined; update on past decade’s changing trends in debt issuance in Canada relative to those in other capital markets.

The global economic recovery is entering a new phase. In advanced economies, temporary factors supporting growth in 2010 - such as the inventory cycle and pent-up demand - have largely run their course and fiscal stimulus will shift to fiscal consolidation over the projection horizon.

Responses to the autumn survey suggest that the economic recovery is progressing. Firms remain positive about the outlook over the next 12 months, but they generally expect growth to be modest, owing in part to a weaker outlook for the U.S. economy.

The survey results point to an overall easing in business-lending conditions during the third quarter of 2010. Both the price and non-price aspects of business lending eased during the quarter. Note that the balance of opinion indicates only the direction of the change in lending conditions; it does not provide information on the magnitude of the change.

The recent financial crisis and global economic slowdown have renewed interest in monetary policy options when the policy interest rate is at or near zero.