Uncategorized

• November 5, 2025

  Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

  Opening statement Tiff Macklem House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
• November 5, 2025

  Parliamentary Appearance by the Governor and the Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada

  On Wednesday, November 5, 2025, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance. He will be accompanied by Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• November 4, 2025

  Summary of comments—Fall 2025 Debt Management Strategy consultations

  Today, the Fall 2025 Debt Management Strategy Consultations Summary is being published, following the release of the Government of Canada’s 2026–27 Debt Management Strategy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices

• Non-homothetic Preferences and the Demand Channel of Inflation

  Staff Working Paper 2025-30 Stephen Murchison

  An alternative to the standard CES aggregator, based on non-homothetic household preferences, is proposed. Specifically, the elasticity of substitution between goods declines during periods of strong per-capita consumption and vice versa, giving firms an incentive to adjust their desired markup in response to the state of demand. Empirical evidence favouring a direct role for per-capita consumption demand in inflation determination for Canada is presented.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E5, E52, Q, Q4, Q43, Q5, Q58

• Net Send Limits in the Lynx Payment System: Usage and Implications

  Staff Discussion Paper 2025-13 Virgilio B Pasin, Anna Wyllie

  We study how participants in the Lynx payment system use the net send limit (NSL) tool to control their intraday payment outflow levels. Our results show that participants typically adopt a “set it and forget it” approach to scheduling NSLs and sometimes have distinct intraday NSL adjustment behaviours.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C1, C10, D, D8, D82, E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G4, G41
• November 3, 2025

  Fireside chat with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada

  On Monday, November 3, 2025, Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, will participate in a fireside chat at The Logic Summit.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories

• Demand-Driven Risk Premia in Foreign Exchange and Bond Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2025-29 Ingomar Krohn, Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang

  We show how Treasury demand shocks transmit to foreign exchange and bond markets globally. Higher Treasury demand weakens the U.S. dollar and raises foreign bond prices, with effects persisting for two weeks. The transmission varies predictably across countries based on their monetary policy alignment with the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates, International financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, F31, G, G1, G12, G15

• Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts

  Staff Working Paper 2025-28 Kevin Moran, Dalibor Stevanovic, Stéphane Surprenant

  We produce forecasts for four risk scenarios to consider their usefulness for monitoring the Canadian economy. We find a high-oil-price scenario benefits the economy, a US recession induces a slowdown, a tight labor market leads to price increases, and a restrictive monetary policy scenario increases the unemployment rate while lowering the inflation rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44

• High-Frequency Cross-Sectional Identification of Military News Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 2025-27 Francesco Amodeo, Edoardo Briganti

  We identify and quantify fiscal news shocks, compiling events (2001–2023) that altered the expected path of U.S. defense expenditure. For each event, we estimate market-implied shifts in expected spending. A shift-share analysis yields a two-year, metropolitan statistical area–level GDP multiplier of approximately 1 for U.S. military build-ups.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E30, E32, E6, E60, E62, E65
• October 29, 2025

  Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼%

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases