Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2025

Results of the fourth‑quarter 2025 survey | Vol. 6.4 | January 19, 2026  

The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations was conducted through an online panel from October 30 to November 18, 2025. Follow‑up phone interviews took place from November 21 to 27, 2025.

Overview

• Concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty related to the trade conflict continue to have a negative impact on consumers.
• In this quarter’s survey, consumers perceived a higher likelihood of missing a debt payment and a slightly greater chance of losing their job. In this context, consumers reported weaker spending plans. Still, they perceive a greater chance than last quarter of finding a job or voluntarily leaving their job.
• Expectations for near‑term inflation remain higher than they were before the pandemic, while those for long‑term inflation eased below pre‑pandemic levels. Tariffs are still the most frequently cited driver of inflation, although a little less so than last quarter.
• Overall, the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) indicator declined slightly and remains subdued in the fourth quarter. A modest deterioration in financial health and household spending intentions contributed to this drop, while labour market conditions improved slightly from low levels.

Concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty from the trade conflict still weigh on consumers

The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) indicator remains weak this quarter (Chart 1).1 It has stayed well below its pre-pandemic average since late 2021, coinciding with ongoing perceptions that the cost of living is high. In recent quarters, the indicator and its components also remained below levels observed before the start of the trade conflict with the United States.

Consumers remain pessimistic about their financial health in the fourth quarter (Chart 2, black line). Respondents reported a higher likelihood of missing a debt payment (Chart 2, orange bars), and more than last quarter believe their financial situation has deteriorated (Chart 2, blue bars). In follow-up interviews, one person who said their financial health had worsened added, “Almost everybody’s living on credit…. It’s something that’s going to be detrimental for households.”

This heightened concern about missing a debt payment appears to be tied to consumers’ perceptions of a higher risk of losing their job (Chart 3).

Consumers’ expectations for their financial situation vary according to their views on the impacts of the trade conflict. Half of consumers think the worst effects on the economy or inflation are still to come, and those consumers have the lowest expectations for their financial health (Chart 4). In follow‑up interviews, one of these respondents said, “The worst thing about the tariffs is the uncertainty.… Big businesses aren’t going to invest in anything big now because of uncertainty, and that affects jobs.”

Consumers continue to see the labour market as weak

The CSCE labour market index rose slightly but remains well below pre‑pandemic levels (Chart 5). In the fourth quarter of 2025, consumers reported a higher chance of voluntarily leaving a job or finding a job. However, they also perceived a higher chance of losing their job.

The perceived risk of job loss remains larger than it was before the start of the trade conflict. It is particularly evident among workers in sectors that are highly dependent on trade between Canada and the United States. When asked in a follow‑up interview about the impacts of tariffs on their income and on job opportunities in their sector, one person said, “I think that the longer [tariffs] last, the greater the impact [will be]…. I work in a small‑medium enterprise. Clearly a small business is the victim of tariffs if they sell to the USA.”

Unemployed consumers identified the following as top factors influencing their job‑finding prospects:

• their skills or experience for the jobs available
• the outlook for the economy in general

This quarter’s survey results show that consumers who have been unemployed for 12 months or longer are more likely than those with shorter periods of unemployment to cite their skills or experience as the most important factor affecting their job‑finding prospects. For those who have been unemployed for less than 12 months, skills remain the most cited factor, but concerns about the economy and wages also play an important role.

Consumers remain cautious about their spending plans

Consistent with low expectations for their financial health and elevated concerns about the labour market, consumers’ spending plans continue to be weak (Chart 6). The CSCE consumer spending index fell slightly, though it remains close to the levels observed since the trade conflict began. One respondent said, “It’s definitely tough for my family, and we have to budget more appropriately. We look for a discount and have to be more strategic—I purchase less wants and more needs.”

The top reported barriers to spending remain the same as in previous quarters (Chart 7):

• high prices of many goods and services
• economic uncertainty
• elevated housing costs

The first two factors also continue to be more widely reported now than before the trade conflict began. However, the share of consumers reporting economic uncertainty as weighing on spending has declined meaningfully. Referring to recent economic changes that impact household spending plans, one respondent said the increase in grocery prices “stands out quite a bit…. I know there’s also the tariffs.”

Household spending plans vary by equity holdings. Survey results show that households holding Canadian stocks directly or in retirement accounts have expectations for real spending that are less negative than those of households with no equity holdings (Chart 8). This result holds across income levels.2 Noting the impact of tariffs on prices, one respondent holding stock market investments said, “Things cost a bit more, but I have a big enough cushion that it doesn’t affect me.”

Canadians also continue to prioritize purchases of goods made in Canada and vacations within Canada because of the trade conflict with the United States. But price differences between domestic and foreign-made goods remain an important factor—three-quarters of respondents indicated they are not willing to pay more than an additional 10% for Canadian-made products. “We try to buy Canadian products as much as we can, but in many cases, it depends on the price difference,” one respondent said.

Consumers still believe prices will rise faster than they did before the pandemic

Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation and their one- and two‑year‑ahead inflation expectations continue to be higher than they were before the pandemic (Chart 9). However, while near-term inflation expectations are unchanged from last quarter, long‑term inflation expectations have softened and now sit below the pre‑pandemic average.

Consumers also expect inflation to remain at the current perceived rate over the next two years. This contrasts with the period before the pandemic, when consumers’ one- and two‑year‑ahead inflation expectations tended to be higher than their perceptions of current inflation.

Tariffs and trade tensions remain the most frequently cited factors impacting inflation, though they were noted less often than last quarter (Chart 10). Moreover, survey results show that three‑quarters of consumers who believe tariffs are impacting inflation expect the effects to persist for more than one year but fewer than five years. The shares of consumers pointing to domestic factors—such as domestic government spending, tax policy and high housing costs—as affecting the Bank’s ability to control inflation also increased slightly.

Consumers who knew that the federal government removed a range of counter‑tariffs on September 1, 2025, tended to report lower inflation expectations than those who did not know (Chart 11). Still, most consumers who were aware that some counter‑tariffs were removed do not expect prices to fall. One respondent said, “I’ve never seen prices go down. With the tariffs gone, companies will stop raising prices and leave it at what it is.”

Endnotes

The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations gathers respondents’ views on inflation, the labour market and household finances. Additional information on the survey and its content is available on the Bank of Canada website. The survey report summarizes opinions expressed by the respondents and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Canada.