E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

• Liquidity Optimization in Gross Settlement Systems with Quantum Reordering: Application to TARGET2∗

  Staff working paper 2026-32 Valerio Astuti, Adriano Baldeschi, Luca Bastianelli, Giuseppe Bruno, Riccardo Russo, Ajit Desai, Danica Marsden

  Building on our earlier quantum algorithm, this paper shows that reordering queued payments can significantly reduce liquidity needs. The algorithm performs well on smaller payment batches, while traditional algorithms can process larger batches and deliver greater savings. Machine learning also helps identify which payment patterns offer the greatest potential for improvement.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, C8, C83, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures

• Climate Change and Monetary Policy: Navigating Physical Risks

  Staff analytical paper 2026-44 Tatjana Dahlhaus

  Weather-related disasters can reduce output while increasing inflation, creating difficult trade-offs for monetary policy. This note reviews evidence on the macroeconomic effects of physical climate risks and uses a structural model to assess how more frequent and severe disasters could shape future monetary policy challenges.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, E, E1, E12, E3, E31, E5, E52, F, F4, F41, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Climate change

• Segmented Inflation Dynamics (SID): Identifying Trend Inflation from the Price Index

  Staff analytical paper 2026-43 André Binette, Colleen Smith

  This note presents Segmented Inflation Dynamics (SID), a data-driven tool for assessing trend inflation. SID uses time-series segmentation to divide the price index into contiguous segments with stable inflation rates. Based on data through December 2025, SID indicates that Canada’s trend inflation has been near 2 percent since early 2024.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures

• Balancing the Canadian Repo Market through QT: The Diminishing Role of Settlement Balances

  Staff analytical paper 2026-40 Evan Dudley, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Dimitri Hadjistavropoulos, Neil Maru, Sofia Tchamova, Andreas Uthemann, Jun Yang

  Repo market imbalances can be large and persistent, and can lift the cost of short-term funding in Canada, including the CORRA benchmark. Banks’ holdings of settlement balances absorbed most of the repo imbalances during QE, but have become far less central by the end of QT.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation