Posts

• Examining the Links Between Firm Performance and Insolvency

  Staff Discussion Paper 2025-10 Dylan Hogg, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli

  Assessing insolvency dynamics is essential for evaluating the financial health of non-financial corporations and mitigating macroeconomic and financial stability risks. This study leverages a newly created Statistics Canada dataset linking insolvency records with firm-level financial data to develop a robust framework for monitoring insolvency risk

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, G, G3, G33, L, L2, L20
• June 30, 2025

  Quarterly Research Update – 2025 Q2

  This newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• On the Programmability and Uniformity of Digital Currencies

  Staff Working Paper 2025-18 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet

  Central bankers argue that programmable digital currencies may compromise the uniformity of money. We develop a stylized model to examine this argument and the trade-offs involved in circulating programmable money.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58

• Correcting Selection Bias in a Non-Probability Two-Phase Payment Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2025-17 Heng Chen, John Tsang

  We develop statistical inferences for a non-probability two-phase survey sample when relevant auxiliary information is available from a probability survey sample. The proposed method is assessed by simulation studies and used to analyze a non-probability two phase payment survey.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83

• Incorporating Trip-Chaining to Measuring Canadians’ Access to Cash

  Staff Working Paper 2025-16 Heng Chen, Hongyu Xiao

  Our paper employs smartphone data to construct an improved cash access metric by accounting for both spatial agglomeration and households’ travel patterns. We find that incorporating trip-chaining into the travel metric could show that travel costs are from 15 to 25% less than not incorporating trip-chaining and that the biggest decrease is driven by rural residents.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, O, O1, O18, R, R2, R22, R4, R41

• Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-18 Alexander Lam

  US trade protectionism is making the economic outlook increasingly uncertain. To assess how consumer prices may respond to tariffs, we examine a tariff episode from 2018 using detailed microdata and the synthetic control method.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, F, F1, F10, F13, F14
• June 18, 2025

  Bank of Canada Media Interview – VOCM

  Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, gave an interview to VOCM. The interview will air tomorrow morning.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• June 18, 2025

  Speech by Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada

  On Wednesday, June 18, 2025, Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak before the St. John’s Board of Trade.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• June 18, 2025

  The impact of US trade policy on jobs and inflation in Canada

  Remarks Tiff Macklem St. John’s Board of Trade St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the trade conflict with the United States has affected the Canadian economy. He explains that restoring open trade is critical for jobs and growth, and important for prices and inflation.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Expectations, Inflation and prices, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration

• Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2025 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-17 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos

  We provide an update on the state of the labour market, which has moved into modest excess supply. We also explore why wage growth measures remain elevated and how US trade policy could affect different parts of the labour market. We update the range of benchmarks in our dashboard of indicators.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, J, J2, J3, J6