Posts

• November 3, 2025

  Fireside chat with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada

  On Monday, November 3, 2025, Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, will participate in a fireside chat at The Logic Summit.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories

• Demand-Driven Risk Premia in Foreign Exchange and Bond Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2025-29 Ingomar Krohn, Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang

  We show how Treasury demand shocks transmit to foreign exchange and bond markets globally. Higher Treasury demand weakens the U.S. dollar and raises foreign bond prices, with effects persisting for two weeks. The transmission varies predictably across countries based on their monetary policy alignment with the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates, International financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, F31, G, G1, G12, G15

• Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts

  Staff Working Paper 2025-28 Kevin Moran, Dalibor Stevanovic, Stéphane Surprenant

  We produce forecasts for four risk scenarios to consider their usefulness for monitoring the Canadian economy. We find a high-oil-price scenario benefits the economy, a US recession induces a slowdown, a tight labor market leads to price increases, and a restrictive monetary policy scenario increases the unemployment rate while lowering the inflation rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44

• High-Frequency Cross-Sectional Identification of Military News Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 2025-27 Francesco Amodeo, Edoardo Briganti

  We identify and quantify fiscal news shocks, compiling events (2001–2023) that altered the expected path of U.S. defense expenditure. For each event, we estimate market-implied shifts in expected spending. A shift-share analysis yields a two-year, metropolitan statistical area–level GDP multiplier of approximately 1 for U.S. military build-ups.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E30, E32, E6, E60, E62, E65
• October 29, 2025

  Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼%

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
• October 29, 2025

  Monetary Policy Report—October 2025

  

  Canada’s economy is adjusting to tariffs and the sharp drop in demand for exports. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is leading to higher costs. Total inflation has been around 2%, while underlying inflation remains about 2½%.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
• October 29, 2025

  Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening statement Tiff Macklem Ottawa, Ontario

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Monetary Policy Report and the key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the monetary policy decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
• October 29, 2025

  Bank of Canada interest rate announcement and release of the Monetary Policy Report 

  On Wednesday, October 29, 2025, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the target for the overnight rate. A press release will provide a brief explanation of the decision. The Bank will also publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) at the same time as the interest rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• October 27, 2025

  Free Family Events at the Bank of Canada Museum for Financial Literacy Month

  This November, the Bank of Canada Museum invites visitors to celebrate the 15^th anniversary of Financial Literacy Month (FLM) with a full lineup of free, hands-on activities that make money management approachable, practical, and fun for all ages.

  Content Type(s): Press, Announcements
• October 20, 2025

  The Bank of Canada releases the third quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

  On Monday, October 20, 2025, the Bank of Canada will release the third quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories