Posts

• January 29, 2025

  Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—In focus—Recent factors affecting the Canada-US exchange rate

  The Canadian dollar has declined against the US dollar since October 2024, mostly due to rising uncertainty around trade policies. A widening differential in policy interest rates between the two countries has also played a modest role.
• January 29, 2025

  Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—Overview

  Economic growth has ticked up in Canada, boosted by past cuts in interest rates. In the absence of new tariffs, growth is forecast to strengthen, and inflation remains close to 2%. But the threat of new tariffs is causing major uncertainty.
• January 29, 2025

  Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—In focus—Evaluating the potential impacts of US tariffs

  The new US administration is considering sweeping tariffs on imports. While many important elements are unknown, these measures could be highly disruptive to the Canadian and US economies.
• January 29, 2025

  Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—Risks

  The prospect of wide-ranging US import tariffs is the most important risk to the outlook. Given the fast-evolving situation and the high degree of uncertainty, the Bank has chosen not to include new tariffs in the projection.
• January 20, 2025

  Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2024

  Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that overall business conditions remain subdued, but firms are beginning to anticipate improvements in activity. Sales outlooks continue to show signs of improvement after a period of weakness. Yet many businesses still have spare capacity, which is reducing their need to expand. Firms expect cost growth, including wages, to soften further. Expectations for inflation moved slightly higher but remain within the Bank of Canada’s target range.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
• January 20, 2025

  Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2024

  Results from the CSCE show that consumer sentiment improved this quarter, mainly due to recent interest rate cuts and the expectation of further cuts ahead. Consumers reported stronger spending plans. Still, they reported that high prices of many goods and services, economic uncertainty and elevated housing costs continue to weigh on spending decisions. Consumer confidence in the labour market has weakened and is now slightly below the survey average. Consumers’ inflation expectations have largely returned to historical norms.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
• January 20, 2025

  The Bank of Canada releases the fourth quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

  On Monday, January 20, 2025, the Bank of Canada will release the fourth quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories

• Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting

  Staff working paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant

  This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
• January 17, 2025

  Bank of Canada releases review of exceptional policy actions taken during the pandemic

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada’s exceptional policy actions during the COVID-19 pandemic provided important support for the economy during the unprecedented shock, says a review published today.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
• January 17, 2025

  Release of the Bank of Canada’s review of exceptional pandemic measures

  On Friday, January 17, 2025, the Bank of Canada will publish its report on the exceptional policy actions undertaken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The documents will also include a review by an external panel of experts, and a response from the Bank’s Governing Council.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories