The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%.
Tariffs are significantly higher than they were at the start of 2025, and it is extremely difficult to predict how US trade policy will play out. Canadian economic activity has slowed but is showing signs of resilience. While inflation is close to 2%, underlying inflation has picked up.
The Canadian economy ended 2024 in a strong position. However, the trade conflict and tariffs are expected to slow growth and add to price pressures. The outlook is very uncertain because of the unpredictability of US trade policy and the magnitude of its impact on the Canadian economy.
Economic growth has ticked up in Canada, boosted by past cuts in interest rates. In the absence of new tariffs, growth is forecast to strengthen, and inflation remains close to 2%. But the threat of new tariffs is causing major uncertainty.