Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment Staff Analytical Note 2024-11 Tessa Devakos, Christopher Hajzler, Stephanie Houle, Craig Johnston, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Ron Rautu, Temel Taskin We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update Staff Analytical Note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41
January 15, 2024 Mapping out the implications of climate transition risk for the financial system Gabriel Bruneau, Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrew Plummer, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts We develop a new analytical framework to understand the system-wide implications of climate transition risk. When applying this framework to Canadian data, we find that interconnections within the financial sector could amplify the direct effects of climate transition risk on financial entities. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20, Q, Q5, Q54
Modelling Canadian mortgage debt and payments in a semi-structural model Staff Analytical Note 2024-1 Fares Bounajm, Austin McWhirter We show how Canadian mortgage debt dynamics can be modelled in a semi-structural macroeconomic model, such as the Bank of Canada’s LENS. The model we propose accounts for Canada’s unique mortgage debt structure. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E4, E43, E47, G, G5, G51
Understanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System Data Staff Discussion Paper 2023-32 Gabriel Bruneau, Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrew Plummer, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts Our study aims to gain insight on financial stability and climate transition risk. We develop a methodological framework that captures the direct effects of a stressful climate transition shock as well as the indirect—or systemic—implications of these direct effects. We apply this framework using data from the Canadian financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20, Q, Q5, Q54
December 15, 2023 Lessons learned and looking ahead Speech summary Tiff Macklem Canadian Club Toronto Toronto, Ontario In his year-end remarks, Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how lessons learned from recent economic volatility are reshaping the way the Bank of Canada conducts economic analysis and communicates with the public. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Economic models, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability
December 15, 2023 The path to price stability Remarks Tiff Macklem Canadian Club Toronto Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the economy will continue to adjust to higher interest rates in the year ahead, and outlines what Canadians can expect from the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Economic models, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability
Making It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections Staff Discussion Paper 2023-29 Marc-André Gosselin, Sharon Kozicki Macroeconomic projections and risk analyses play an important role in guiding monetary policy decisions. Models are integral to this process. This paper discusses how the Bank of Canada brings research models and lessons learned from those models into the central bank projection environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, E5, E52
International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers Staff Working Paper 2023-56 Sami Alpanda, Uluc Aysun, Serdar Kabaca We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, F, F4, F41, F44
Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how Staff Analytical Note 2023-16 Ajit Desai This article reviews selected papers that use machine learning for economics research and policy analysis. Our review highlights when machine learning is used in economics, the commonly preferred models and how those models are used. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, B, B2, B23, C, C4, C45, C5, C55