January 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—January 2026—Canadian economy—Outlook US trade restrictions have disrupted the Canadian economy, leading to structural adjustments that will take time to unfold. Economic growth is expected to remain modest. Excess supply roughly offsets upward cost pressures over the projection horizon, keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
January 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—January 2026—Global economy Global growth is expected to remain solid, supported by the boom in investment in artificial intelligence and by fiscal stimulus in several major economies.
January 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—January 2026—Projections The outlook for the Canadian economy is evolving largely as anticipated. Economic growth is expected to average around 1¼% over the projection horizon, and inflation remains near 2%.
January 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—January 2026—Risks With geopolitical uncertainty elevated and Canada’s trade agreement with the United States and Mexico under review, risks around the outlook are unusually high.
January 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Tiff Macklem Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Monetary Policy Report and the key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the monetary policy decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
January 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—January 2026—Canadian economy—Tariff and other assumptions US tariffs remain elevated. The future of trade in North America continues to be highly uncertain.
January 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—January 2026—In focus—How Canadian businesses are adapting to US tariffs Canadian businesses continue their efforts to expand exports to countries other than the United States. Trade tensions are also leading Canadian businesses to rely less on US imports.
January 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—January 2026—In focus—The review of the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement The future of Canada’s trade agreement with the United States and Mexico is unclear. A review of the agreement could lead to many possible outcomes, and these can have a wide range of impacts on the Canadian economy.
January 19, 2026 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2025 Results of the fourth-quarter 2025 survey show that concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty related to the trade conflict continue to have a negative impact on consumers. As a result, even though labour market conditions improved somewhat, the CSCE indicator declined slightly. Expectations for near-term inflation remain higher than they were before the pandemic, while those for long-term inflation eased below pre-pandemic levels. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
January 19, 2026 Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2025 Firms’ sentiment remains subdued, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. After a weak year, domestic sales growth is expected to improve slightly. Export sales are expected to be modest. Most businesses plan to maintain or decrease current staffing levels, and they continue to prioritize investment spending on routine maintenance. Firms reported less pressure than last quarter from tariff-related cost increases. Most do not anticipate substantial increases in selling prices. Inflation expectations remain roughly stable between 2.5% and 3%. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey